Stade Nyonnais
vs
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
Garuda Lions Prediction: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
0 – 2 Predicted score · 12% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.77 vs 0.69.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Stade Nyonnais vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Stade Nyonnais vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
| Probability | Stade Nyonnais | Draw | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 6.1% | 13.9% | 80.0% |
| Market | 13.6% | 19.3% | 67.1% |
| Final | 11.7% | 18.0% | 70.3% |
| Edge | -1.9% | -1.4% | +3.2% |
Why Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.77 vs 0.69.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Stade Lausanne-Ouchy below our published probability: +3.2 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.39, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -2.3% per unit staked (our 70.3% × 1.39 − 1).
Stade Nyonnais vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy match preview
Stade Nyonnais faces Stade Lausanne-Ouchy in the Challenge League with contrasting recent forms. Stade Nyonnais has recorded two wins and four losses in their last six matches, while Stade Lausanne-Ouchy boasts an impressive run of four wins and two draws. According to our model, Stade Nyonnais has a 13% chance of winning, with a predicted scoreline of 0-2, which is the most likely outcome at 12%.
The expected goals figures further highlight the disparity, with Stade Nyonnais at 0.69 and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy at 2.77. Additionally, there is a 67% probability of over 2.5 goals in the match, and both teams are given a 48% chance of scoring. Historically, in their last 10 encounters, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy has secured 6 victories against Stade Nyonnais' 2 wins.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Stade Nyonnais and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.47
Stade Nyonnais and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy attack and defence ratings
Stade Nyonnais
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
Stade Nyonnais vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | 70.3% | 1.42 | +3.2% | 1.39 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.3% | 1.49 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 52.5% | 1.91 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 88.3% | 1.13 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy win | 60.5% | 1.65 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Stade Nyonnais | 11.7% |
| Draw | 18.0% | |
| Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | 70.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 32.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47.5% |
| No | 52.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 29.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 82.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 88.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy win | 60.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.5% | |
| Loss | 20.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-2 | 12.0% |
| 0-3 | 11.1% | |
| 1-2 | 8.3% |
Stade Nyonnais vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy stats
Stade Nyonnais and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy recent form
| Stade Nyonnais |
WLLWLL |
| Stade Lausanne-Ouchy |
WDWWDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Stade Nyonnais and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy season so far
Stade Nyonnais record
- They have won 2 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 12 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy record
- They have won 8 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
Stade Nyonnais vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | Stade Nyonnais | Challenge League | 2-0 |
| 2026-05-11 | Stade Nyonnais | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | Challenge League | 1-3 |
| 2026-03-14 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | Stade Nyonnais | Challenge League | 1-1 |
| 2025-11-01 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | Stade Nyonnais | Challenge League | 3-3 |
| 2025-09-12 | Stade Nyonnais | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | Challenge League | 1-2 |
| 2025-04-26 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | Stade Nyonnais | Challenge League | 0-1 |
| 2025-02-21 | Stade Nyonnais | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | Challenge League | 3-0 |
| 2024-11-08 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | Stade Nyonnais | Challenge League | 6-2 |
| 2024-08-30 | Stade Nyonnais | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | Challenge League | 0-3 |
| 2022-01-21 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | Stade Nyonnais | Friendlies Clubs | 4-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Stade Nyonnais vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 13.6%, draw 19.3%, away 67.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 6.91 | 4.65 | 1.34 |
| Bet365 | 6.25 | 4.75 | 1.38 |
| BetVictor | 7.50 | 4.80 | 1.36 |
| Betano | 6.80 | 4.70 | 1.39 |
| Betfair | 6.50 | 4.75 | 1.33 |
| Dafabet | 7.20 | 5.00 | 1.37 |
| Marathonbet | 6.60 | 4.65 | 1.33 |
| Pinnacle | 7.88 | 5.29 | 1.36 |
| SBO | 6.28 | 4.42 | 1.32 |
| William Hill | 6.50 | 4.60 | 1.36 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .