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Challenge League · ·Matchday 13

FC Aarau vs FC WIL 1900

Garuda Lions Prediction: FC Aarau

2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability

  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.18 vs 1.48.
  • RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — FC Aarau is the favourite, not a value bet.
Bet on FC Aarau
FC Aarau 52%
Draw 23%
FC WIL 1900 25%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Chance FC Aarau wins
52%
most likely outcome
Chance of a goal
97%
at least one goal in the match
Both teams score
69%
goals at both ends
Most likely score with our pick
2 – 1
9% of simulated outcomes

FC Aarau vs FC WIL 1900 overview

Garuda Lions analysis: FC Aarau vs FC WIL 1900

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityFC AarauDrawFC WIL 1900
Model52.8%22.2%25.1%
Market52.0%23.6%24.4%
Final52.2%23.2%24.6%
Edge+0.2%-0.4%+0.2%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why FC Aarau

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.18 vs 1.48.

Best available price on the pick: 1.82, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.0% per unit staked (our 52.2% × 1.82 − 1).

FC Aarau vs FC WIL 1900 match preview

FC Aarau is set to face FC WIL 1900 in the Challenge League on November 6, 2026. According to our model, FC Aarau has a 52% probability of winning, while FC WIL 1900 stands at 25%, with a 23% chance of a draw. The expected goals for FC Aarau is 2.18, compared to 1.48 for FC WIL 1900, suggesting a potential scoreline of 2-1, which has a 9% likelihood.

In terms of recent form, FC Aarau has recorded one win and two draws in their last six matches, while FC WIL 1900 has two wins and two draws in the same span. The head-to-head record over the last ten encounters shows both teams with two wins each and six draws, indicating a competitive matchup. Our model predicts a high likelihood of over 2.5 goals at 71% and both teams scoring at 69%.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

FC Aarau ↓ / FC WIL 1900 → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 5% 9% 6% 2 6% 9% 7% 3 7% 5% 4+ 6%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 97%
2+ goals 89%
3+ goals 71%
No goals 3%

FC Aarau and FC WIL 1900 expected goals

FC Aarau 2.18
FC WIL 1900 1.48

Total expected goals: 3.67

FC Aarau and FC WIL 1900 attack and defence ratings

FC Aarau

Attack 1.11 +11%
Defence 1.04 +4%

FC WIL 1900

Attack 1.01 +1%
Defence 1.18 +18%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Other Matchday 13 fixtures

Challenge League

Before and after this match

FC Aarau vs FC WIL 1900 markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 FC Aarau 52.2% 1.92 +0.2% 1.82
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 70.9% 1.41 — —
Both teams to score Yes 69.4% 1.44 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 76.8% 1.30 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 47.2% 2.12 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2FC Aarau52.2%
Draw23.2%
FC WIL 190024.6%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.570.9%
Under 2.529.1%
Both teams to scoreYes69.4%
No30.6%
Double chance1X (home or draw)75.4%
12 (either side)76.8%
X2 (draw or away)47.8%
Handicap -1FC Aarau win32.6%
Push (exactly one goal)20.2%
Loss47.2%
Correct score (top 3)1-19.1%
2-19.0%
2-26.7%
Compare prices for this pick

FC Aarau vs FC WIL 1900 stats

FC Aarau and FC WIL 1900 recent form

newest first
FC Aarau WLWLLD
FC WIL 1900 LDWDWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

FC Aarau and FC WIL 1900 season so far

league record

FC Aarau record

  • They have won 4 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
  • They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).

FC WIL 1900 record

  • They have won 2 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 12 matches.
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

FC Aarau vs FC WIL 1900 head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

2FC Aarau wins 6Draws 2FC WIL 1900 wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-08-31FC WIL 1900FC AarauChallenge League2-2
2026-04-25FC WIL 1900FC AarauChallenge League2-2
2026-02-07FC AarauFC WIL 1900Challenge League2-2
2025-10-24FC AarauFC WIL 1900Challenge League2-0
2025-08-01FC WIL 1900FC AarauChallenge League1-3
2025-05-09FC AarauFC WIL 1900Challenge League2-4
2025-03-16FC WIL 1900FC AarauChallenge League2-2
2024-11-24FC AarauFC WIL 1900Challenge League1-1
2024-07-26FC WIL 1900FC AarauChallenge League2-2
2024-05-17FC AarauFC WIL 1900Challenge League0-4

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

FC Aarau vs FC WIL 1900 odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 52.0%, draw 23.6%, away 24.4%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.73 3.82 3.76
Bet365 1.73 3.90 3.90
BetVictor 1.75 4.00 3.90
Betano 1.82 3.90 3.65
Betfair 1.75 3.80 3.70
Dafabet 1.81 3.95 3.75
Marathonbet 1.71 3.82 3.68
Pinnacle 1.79 4.12 4.08
SBO 1.75 3.50 3.46
William Hill 1.75 3.70 3.60
Find the best place to bet

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.75 ▲ +0.01
X 3.86 —
2 3.73 ▼ -0.13

10 snapshots recorded, from .

Prediction snapshot 1 FC Aarau Predicted score 2 – 1 Low Bet Now
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