Neuchatel Xamax FC
vs
FC Aarau
Garuda Lions Prediction: FC Aarau
1 – 2 Predicted score · 7% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — FC Aarau is the favourite, not a value bet.
Neuchatel Xamax FC vs FC Aarau overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Neuchatel Xamax FC vs FC Aarau
| Probability | Neuchatel Xamax FC | Draw | FC Aarau |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44.9% | 26.0% | 29.0% |
| Market | 34.1% | 24.4% | 41.5% |
| Final | 36.8% | 24.8% | 38.4% |
| Edge | +2.7% | +0.4% | -3.1% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.24, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -14.0% per unit staked (our 38.4% × 2.24 − 1).
Neuchatel Xamax FC vs FC Aarau match preview
Neuchatel Xamax FC faces FC Aarau in what promises to be a competitive Challenge League encounter. The probabilities suggest a close match, with Neuchatel Xamax FC at 37% to win, while FC Aarau holds a slight edge at 38%. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 1-2 in favor of FC Aarau, with both teams expected to score in 61% of scenarios.
Recent form indicates mixed results for both teams, with Neuchatel Xamax FC recording two wins in their last six matches, while FC Aarau has secured two wins in their last six as well. The expected goals figures show Neuchatel Xamax FC at 1.69 and FC Aarau at 1.32, suggesting a potentially high-scoring match with over 2.5 goals predicted in 58% of simulations.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Neuchatel Xamax FC and FC Aarau expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.01
Neuchatel Xamax FC and FC Aarau attack and defence ratings
Neuchatel Xamax FC
FC Aarau
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Neuchatel Xamax FC vs FC Aarau markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Aarau | 38.4% | 2.61 | -3.1% | 2.24 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.9% | 1.73 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.9% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.2% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 71.0% | 1.41 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Neuchatel Xamax FC | 36.8% |
| Draw | 24.8% | |
| FC Aarau | 38.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 42.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.9% |
| No | 39.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 61.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 63.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Aarau win | 13.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16.0% | |
| Loss | 71.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.1% |
| 2-1 | 9.3% | |
| 1-2 | 7.3% |
Neuchatel Xamax FC vs FC Aarau stats
Neuchatel Xamax FC and FC Aarau recent form
| Neuchatel Xamax FC |
DWWLWL |
| FC Aarau |
LWLLDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Neuchatel Xamax FC and FC Aarau season so far
Neuchatel Xamax FC record
- They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
FC Aarau record
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Neuchatel Xamax FC vs FC Aarau head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | FC Aarau | Neuchatel Xamax FC | Challenge League | 2-1 |
| 2026-05-01 | Neuchatel Xamax FC | FC Aarau | Challenge League | 1-3 |
| 2026-03-21 | FC Aarau | Neuchatel Xamax FC | Challenge League | 1-0 |
| 2025-11-28 | Neuchatel Xamax FC | FC Aarau | Challenge League | 1-2 |
| 2025-08-09 | FC Aarau | Neuchatel Xamax FC | Challenge League | 2-0 |
| 2025-04-11 | Neuchatel Xamax FC | FC Aarau | Challenge League | 1-1 |
| 2025-03-07 | FC Aarau | Neuchatel Xamax FC | Challenge League | 2-0 |
| 2024-12-13 | Neuchatel Xamax FC | FC Aarau | Challenge League | 1-3 |
| 2024-08-03 | FC Aarau | Neuchatel Xamax FC | Challenge League | 1-3 |
| 2024-04-12 | Neuchatel Xamax FC | FC Aarau | Challenge League | 3-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Neuchatel Xamax FC vs FC Aarau odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 34.1%, draw 24.4%, away 41.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.66 | 3.66 | 2.19 |
| Betano | 2.72 | 3.80 | 2.22 |
| Dafabet | 2.70 | 3.95 | 2.19 |
| Marathonbet | 2.60 | 3.66 | 2.17 |
| Pinnacle | 2.68 | 4.04 | 2.24 |
| William Hill | 2.60 | 3.60 | 2.20 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .