Garuda Lions
Today
Challenge League · ·Matchday 11

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Neuchatel Xamax FC

Garuda Lions Prediction: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy

2 – 0 Predicted score · 13% model probability

  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.56 vs 0.66.
  • RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Bet on Stade Lausanne-Ouchy

Stade Olympique de la Pontaise, Lausanne

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 63%
Draw 20%
Neuchatel Xamax FC 17%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Chance Stade Lausanne-Ouchy wins
63%
most likely outcome
Chance of a goal
95%
at least one goal in the match
Both teams score
45%
goals at both ends
Most likely score with our pick
2 – 0
13% of simulated outcomes

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Neuchatel Xamax FC overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Neuchatel Xamax FC

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityStade Lausanne-OuchyDrawNeuchatel Xamax FC
Model77.8%15.5%6.7%
Market58.0%22.1%19.9%
Final62.9%20.5%16.6%
Edge+4.9%-1.7%-3.3%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Stade Lausanne-Ouchy

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.56 vs 0.66.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Stade Lausanne-Ouchy below our published probability: +4.9 percentage points of edge.

Best available price on the pick: 1.65, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +3.8% per unit staked (our 62.9% × 1.65 − 1).

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Neuchatel Xamax FC match preview

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy enters this match with a strong recent form, boasting four consecutive wins and a draw in their last five matches. Their expected goals stand at 2.55, indicating a potent attacking threat, while Neuchatel Xamax FC has struggled, with only two wins in their last six games and an expected goals figure of just 0.60. The probability model suggests a 63% chance of a Stade Lausanne-Ouchy victory, with a predicted scoreline of 2-0 being the most likely outcome at 14%.

In head-to-head encounters, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy has dominated, winning four out of the last five meetings against Neuchatel Xamax FC, who have managed only one win in that span. The model also indicates a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals in the match, while both teams scoring is less likely at 42%.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Stade Lausanne ↓ / Neuchatel Xama → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 10% 7% 2 13% 9% 3 11% 7% 4+ 13% 9%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 95%
2+ goals 84%
3+ goals 62%
No goals 5%

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and Neuchatel Xamax FC expected goals

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 2.56
Neuchatel Xamax FC 0.66

Total expected goals: 3.22

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and Neuchatel Xamax FC attack and defence ratings

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy

Attack 1.47 +47%
Defence 0.44 -56%

Neuchatel Xamax FC

Attack 1.07 +7%
Defence 1.06 +6%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Other Matchday 11 fixtures

Challenge League

Before and after this match

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Neuchatel Xamax FC markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 62.9% 1.59 +4.9% 1.65
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 62.5% 1.60 — —
Both teams to score No 54.8% 1.83 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 83.4% 1.20 — —
Handicap -1 Stade Lausanne-Ouchy win 56.8% 1.76 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Stade Lausanne-Ouchy62.9%
Draw20.5%
Neuchatel Xamax FC16.6%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.562.5%
Under 2.537.5%
Both teams to scoreYes45.2%
No54.8%
Double chance1X (home or draw)83.4%
12 (either side)79.5%
X2 (draw or away)37.1%
Handicap -1Stade Lausanne-Ouchy win56.8%
Push (exactly one goal)21.0%
Loss22.2%
Correct score (top 3)2-013.1%
3-011.2%
1-09.5%
Compare prices for this pick

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Neuchatel Xamax FC stats

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and Neuchatel Xamax FC recent form

newest first
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy WWDWWW
Neuchatel Xamax FC WWLWLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and Neuchatel Xamax FC season so far

league record

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy record

  • They have won 7 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
  • They average 2.8 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
  • They have kept 7 clean sheets in 10 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
  • 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Neuchatel Xamax FC record

  • They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Neuchatel Xamax FC head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

6Stade Lausanne-Ouchy wins 1Draws 3Neuchatel Xamax FC wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-08-21Neuchatel Xamax FCStade Lausanne-OuchyChallenge League1-2
2026-05-15Stade Lausanne-OuchyNeuchatel Xamax FCChallenge League2-1
2026-02-08Neuchatel Xamax FCStade Lausanne-OuchyChallenge League3-0
2025-12-10Stade Lausanne-OuchyNeuchatel Xamax FCChallenge League3-0
2025-10-03Neuchatel Xamax FCStade Lausanne-OuchyChallenge League0-2
2025-04-18Stade Lausanne-OuchyNeuchatel Xamax FCChallenge League0-0
2025-01-24Neuchatel Xamax FCStade Lausanne-OuchyChallenge League1-2
2024-11-29Stade Lausanne-OuchyNeuchatel Xamax FCChallenge League1-2
2024-07-19Neuchatel Xamax FCStade Lausanne-OuchyChallenge League3-2
2023-05-05Stade Lausanne-OuchyNeuchatel Xamax FCChallenge League2-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Neuchatel Xamax FC odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 58.0%, draw 22.1%, away 19.9%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.55 4.15 4.58
Bet365 1.60 4.10 4.50
BetVictor 1.60 4.10 4.75
Betano 1.65 4.10 4.40
Betfair 1.55 4.20 4.60
Dafabet 1.62 4.30 4.60
Marathonbet 1.53 4.15 4.50
Pinnacle 1.58 4.28 4.84
SBO 1.54 3.69 4.07
William Hill 1.57 3.90 4.60
Find the best place to bet

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.58 ▲ +0.01
X 4.12 ▼ -0.03
2 4.59 ▼ -0.01

12 snapshots recorded, from .

Prediction snapshot 1 Stade Lausanne-Ouchy Predicted score 2 – 0 Low Bet Now
v Bet Now