FC Winterthur
vs
Stade Nyonnais
Garuda Lions Prediction: FC Winterthur
2 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.59 vs 0.83.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — FC Winterthur is the favourite, not a value bet.
FC Winterthur vs Stade Nyonnais overview
Garuda Lions analysis: FC Winterthur vs Stade Nyonnais
| Probability | FC Winterthur | Draw | Stade Nyonnais |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 74.4% | 16.6% | 9.0% |
| Market | 77.6% | 14.1% | 8.3% |
| Final | 76.8% | 14.7% | 8.5% |
| Edge | -0.8% | +0.6% | +0.2% |
Why FC Winterthur
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.59 vs 0.83.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.22, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.3% per unit staked (our 76.8% × 1.22 − 1).
FC Winterthur vs Stade Nyonnais match preview
FC Winterthur enters this match against Stade Nyonnais with a strong probability of winning at 77%, reflecting their recent form of L-W-W-W-D-D. The expected goals for FC Winterthur stand at 2.87, indicating a robust offensive capability, while Stade Nyonnais has an expected goals figure of only 0.85. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-0, occurring with a 10% probability.
Stade Nyonnais has struggled recently, with a record of L-W-L-L-L-D in their last matches. The probability of both teams scoring is estimated at 55%, while there is a 72% likelihood of the match featuring over 2.5 goals. In their last head-to-head encounter, FC Winterthur has yet to secure a win, with one draw against Stade Nyonnais.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
FC Winterthur and Stade Nyonnais expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.41
FC Winterthur and Stade Nyonnais attack and defence ratings
FC Winterthur
Stade Nyonnais
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
FC Winterthur vs Stade Nyonnais markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Winterthur | 76.8% | 1.30 | -0.8% | 1.22 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.3% | 1.51 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.7% | 1.90 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 91.5% | 1.09 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | FC Winterthur win | 53.6% | 1.86 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Winterthur | 76.8% |
| Draw | 14.7% | |
| Stade Nyonnais | 8.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 33.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.7% |
| No | 47.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 91.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 85.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 23.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Winterthur win | 53.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.8% | |
| Loss | 25.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 11.0% |
| 3-0 | 9.5% | |
| 2-1 | 9.1% |
FC Winterthur vs Stade Nyonnais stats
FC Winterthur and Stade Nyonnais recent form
| FC Winterthur |
LLWWWD |
| Stade Nyonnais |
LWLLLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
FC Winterthur and Stade Nyonnais season so far
FC Winterthur record
- They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
Stade Nyonnais record
- They have won 1 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
FC Winterthur vs Stade Nyonnais head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Stade Nyonnais | FC Winterthur | Challenge League | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
FC Winterthur vs Stade Nyonnais odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 77.6%, draw 14.1%, away 8.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.14 | 6.55 | 11.50 |
| Bet365 | 1.18 | 6.25 | 11.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.18 | 6.50 | 13.00 |
| Betano | 1.22 | 6.20 | 10.00 |
| Betfair | 1.14 | 6.50 | 12.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.21 | 6.80 | 10.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.14 | 6.55 | 11.50 |
| Pinnacle | 1.18 | 7.05 | 10.85 |
| SBO | 1.17 | 5.42 | 7.72 |
| William Hill | 1.18 | 6.00 | 11.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .