Yverdon Sport
vs
Neuchatel Xamax FC
Garuda Lions Prediction: Yverdon Sport
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.33 vs 1.08.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Yverdon Sport is the favourite, not a value bet.
Yverdon Sport vs Neuchatel Xamax FC overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Yverdon Sport vs Neuchatel Xamax FC
| Probability | Yverdon Sport | Draw | Neuchatel Xamax FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 64.3% | 20.3% | 15.4% |
| Market | 56.6% | 22.8% | 20.6% |
| Final | 58.5% | 22.2% | 19.3% |
| Edge | +1.9% | -0.6% | -1.3% |
Why Yverdon Sport
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.33 vs 1.08.
Best available price on the pick: 1.65, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.4% per unit staked (our 58.5% × 1.65 − 1).
Yverdon Sport vs Neuchatel Xamax FC match preview
Yverdon Sport is favored to win against Neuchatel Xamax FC, with a 64% probability according to our model. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with an expected goals tally of 2.33 for Yverdon Sport compared to 1.08 for Neuchatel Xamax FC. Yverdon Sport's recent form includes a mix of results, with two wins in their last five matches, while Neuchatel Xamax FC has recorded three wins in the same period.
The match is anticipated to see over 2.5 goals, with a probability of 66%, and both teams are expected to score, with a 61% likelihood. Historically, Yverdon Sport has dominated their encounters, winning 8 of the last 10 meetings, with Neuchatel Xamax FC yet to secure a victory in this stretch.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Yverdon Sport and Neuchatel Xamax FC expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.41
Yverdon Sport and Neuchatel Xamax FC attack and defence ratings
Yverdon Sport
Neuchatel Xamax FC
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
Yverdon Sport vs Neuchatel Xamax FC markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Yverdon Sport | 58.5% | 1.71 | +1.9% | 1.65 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.3% | 1.51 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.6% | 1.65 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.7% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Yverdon Sport win | 42.7% | 2.34 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Yverdon Sport | 58.5% |
| Draw | 22.2% | |
| Neuchatel Xamax FC | 19.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 33.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.6% |
| No | 39.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 41.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Yverdon Sport win | 42.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.6% | |
| Loss | 35.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 9.7% |
| 1-1 | 9.2% | |
| 2-0 | 8.9% |
Yverdon Sport vs Neuchatel Xamax FC stats
Yverdon Sport and Neuchatel Xamax FC recent form
| Yverdon Sport |
LWWWDL |
| Neuchatel Xamax FC |
LDWWLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Yverdon Sport and Neuchatel Xamax FC season so far
Yverdon Sport record
- They have won 6 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.6 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
Neuchatel Xamax FC record
- They have won 5 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Yverdon Sport vs Neuchatel Xamax FC head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Neuchatel Xamax FC | Yverdon Sport | Challenge League | 1-2 |
| 2026-04-22 | Yverdon Sport | Neuchatel Xamax FC | Challenge League | 2-2 |
| 2026-02-03 | Neuchatel Xamax FC | Yverdon Sport | Schweizer Cup | 1-2 |
| 2026-01-25 | Neuchatel Xamax FC | Yverdon Sport | Challenge League | 1-2 |
| 2025-11-07 | Neuchatel Xamax FC | Yverdon Sport | Challenge League | 2-2 |
| 2025-08-31 | Yverdon Sport | Neuchatel Xamax FC | Challenge League | 3-1 |
| 2023-04-07 | Yverdon Sport | Neuchatel Xamax FC | Challenge League | 2-0 |
| 2023-03-12 | Neuchatel Xamax FC | Yverdon Sport | Challenge League | 1-2 |
| 2022-11-25 | Yverdon Sport | Neuchatel Xamax FC | Challenge League | 3-1 |
| 2022-08-05 | Neuchatel Xamax FC | Yverdon Sport | Challenge League | 2-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Yverdon Sport vs Neuchatel Xamax FC odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 56.6%, draw 22.8%, away 20.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.58 | 4.05 | 4.42 |
| Bet365 | 1.62 | 4.00 | 4.33 |
| BetVictor | 1.62 | 4.10 | 4.60 |
| Betano | 1.65 | 3.95 | 4.55 |
| Betfair | 1.62 | 4.00 | 4.33 |
| Dafabet | 1.63 | 4.10 | 4.50 |
| Marathonbet | 1.56 | 4.05 | 4.33 |
| Pinnacle | 1.65 | 4.04 | 4.69 |
| SBO | 1.54 | 3.71 | 4.06 |
| William Hill | 1.62 | 3.75 | 4.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .