Garuda Lions
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Switzerland Super League · ·Matchday 11

FC Zurich vs FC Luzern

Garuda Lions Prediction: FC Luzern

1 – 2 Predicted score · 8% model probability

  • WhyBetter recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — FC Luzern is the favourite, not a value bet.
Bet on FC Luzern

Swissporarena, Lucerne

FC Zurich 37%
Draw 24%
FC Luzern 39%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Chance FC Luzern wins
39%
most likely outcome
Chance of a goal
97%
at least one goal in the match
Both teams score
71%
goals at both ends
Most likely score with our pick
1 – 2
8% of simulated outcomes

FC Zurich vs FC Luzern overview

Garuda Lions analysis: FC Zurich vs FC Luzern

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityFC ZurichDrawFC Luzern
Model36.2%23.4%40.4%
Market37.3%24.5%38.2%
Final37.0%24.2%38.8%
Edge-0.3%-0.3%+0.6%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why FC Luzern

  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Best available price on the pick: 2.51, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -2.7% per unit staked (our 38.8% × 2.51 − 1).

FC Zurich vs FC Luzern match preview

FC Zurich faces FC Luzern in what promises to be an intriguing matchup in the Switzerland Super League. According to our model, FC Zurich has a 38% chance of winning, while FC Luzern is slightly favored at 39%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2 in favor of FC Luzern, with an expected goals tally of 2.17 for FC Zurich and 2.00 for FC Luzern.

Recent form shows FC Zurich with a mixed record of W-D-W-D-L-W, while FC Luzern has been more consistent with L-W-L-D-W-D. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is high at 79%, and both teams are expected to score, with a probability of 77%. The head-to-head record indicates a competitive history, with FC Zurich winning once, drawing once, and FC Luzern winning twice in their last four encounters.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

FC Zurich ↓ / FC Luzern → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 9% 8% 5% 2 8% 7% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 97%
2+ goals 89%
3+ goals 71%
No goals 3%

FC Zurich and FC Luzern expected goals

FC Zurich 1.78
FC Luzern 1.89

Total expected goals: 3.67

FC Zurich and FC Luzern attack and defence ratings

FC Zurich

Attack 0.96 -4%
Defence 1.11 +11%

FC Luzern

Attack 1.08 +8%
Defence 1.02 +2%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Other Matchday 11 fixtures

Switzerland Super League

Before and after this match

FC Zurich vs FC Luzern markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 FC Luzern 38.8% 2.58 +0.6% 2.51
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 70.9% 1.41 — —
Both teams to score Yes 71.4% 1.40 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 75.8% 1.32 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 59.6% 1.68 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2FC Zurich37.0%
Draw24.2%
FC Luzern38.8%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.570.9%
Under 2.529.1%
Both teams to scoreYes71.4%
No28.6%
Double chance1X (home or draw)61.2%
12 (either side)75.8%
X2 (draw or away)63.0%
Handicap -1FC Luzern win22.4%
Push (exactly one goal)18.1%
Loss59.6%
Correct score (top 3)1-19.4%
1-28.1%
2-17.6%
Compare prices for this pick

FC Zurich vs FC Luzern stats

FC Zurich and FC Luzern recent form

newest first
FC Zurich LWDWDL
FC Luzern WLWLDW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

FC Zurich and FC Luzern season so far

league record

FC Zurich record

  • They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
  • They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.

FC Luzern record

  • They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
  • 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

FC Zurich vs FC Luzern head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

4FC Zurich wins 3Draws 3FC Luzern wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-05-12FC LuzernFC ZurichSwitzerland Super League1-0
2026-02-14FC ZurichFC LuzernSwitzerland Super League1-4
2025-11-08FC ZurichFC LuzernSwitzerland Super League3-2
2025-08-03FC LuzernFC ZurichSwitzerland Super League1-1
2025-03-15FC ZurichFC LuzernSuper League3-2
2025-01-26FC LuzernFC ZurichSuper League3-1
2024-09-01FC ZurichFC LuzernSuper League1-1
2024-02-18FC LuzernFC ZurichSuper League0-1
2023-12-10FC ZurichFC LuzernSuper League1-1
2023-10-01FC LuzernFC ZurichSuper League1-4

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

FC Zurich vs FC Luzern odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 37.2%, draw 24.4%, away 38.4%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.51 3.82 2.41
Bet365 2.60 3.60 2.50
BetVictor 2.45 3.90 2.30
Betano 2.57 3.60 2.47
Betfair 2.50 4.00 2.40
Dafabet 2.60 3.85 2.48
Marathonbet 2.51 3.82 2.41
Pinnacle 2.55 3.86 2.51
SBO 2.36 3.54 2.25
William Hill 2.45 3.60 2.45
Find the best place to bet

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.51 ▼ -0.04
X 3.82 ▼ -0.08
2 2.45 ▲ +0.12

14 snapshots recorded, from .

Prediction snapshot 2 FC Luzern Predicted score 1 – 2 Low Bet Now
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