Ajax
vs
NEC Nijmegen
Garuda Lions Prediction: Ajax
3 – 1 Predicted score · 7% model probability
Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen
| Probability | Ajax | Draw | NEC Nijmegen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 85.3% | 9.2% | 5.5% |
| Market | 72.2% | 16.3% | 11.5% |
| Final | 75.5% | 14.5% | 10.0% |
| Edge | +13.1% | -7.1% | -6.0% |
Why Ajax
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.90 vs 1.08.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Ajax below the model: +13.1 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.34, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen match preview
Ajax faces NEC Nijmegen in the Eredivisie on October 10, 2026, with Ajax holding a strong probability of 76% for victory compared to NEC's 10%. The most likely scoreline is projected at 3-1, occurring at a 7% chance. Ajax has shown solid recent form with two wins and a draw in their last six matches, while NEC Nijmegen has struggled, managing only one win in their last six outings.
The expected goals statistics further highlight the disparity, with Ajax at 3.89 and NEC Nijmegen at 1.08. There is an 87% likelihood of over 2.5 goals in the match, and a 65% chance that both teams will score. Head-to-head results indicate that in their last two encounters, neither team has secured a win, resulting in two draws.
Ajax and NEC Nijmegen team news
Ajax news
- A. Bouwman — knock
- Caio Henrique — injury
- D. Blind — back injury
- K. Dolberg — knee injury
- S. Adingra — foot injury
NEC Nijmegen news
- A. Kaplan — knee injury
- B. Nuytinck — ankle injury
- C. Bischoff — hamstring injury
- D. Fonville — ankle injury
- E. Mor — groin injury
- G. Crettaz — hamstring injury
- K. Kers — injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Ajax and NEC Nijmegen expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.98
Ajax and NEC Nijmegen attack and defence ratings
Ajax
NEC Nijmegen
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ajax | 75.5% | 1.32 | +13.1% | 1.34 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 87.3% | 1.15 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.1% | 1.54 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 90.0% | 1.11 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Ajax win | 71.6% | 1.40 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ajax | 75.5% |
| Draw | 14.5% | |
| NEC Nijmegen | 10.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 87.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 12.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.1% |
| No | 34.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 90.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 85.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 24.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Ajax win | 71.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 13.8% | |
| Loss | 14.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 3-1 | 7.4% |
| 4-1 | 7.2% | |
| 3-0 | 6.8% |
Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen stats
Ajax and NEC Nijmegen recent form
| Ajax |
DWWLWW |
| NEC Nijmegen |
DLLDLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Ajax and NEC Nijmegen season so far
Ajax record
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 3.0 goals per match.
- They average 3.7 goals per game on the road against 2.5 at home.
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
NEC Nijmegen record
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-21 | Ajax | NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie | 1-1 |
| 2025-12-20 | NEC Nijmegen | Ajax | Eredivisie | 2-2 |
| 2025-05-11 | Ajax | NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie | 0-3 |
| 2024-12-01 | NEC Nijmegen | Ajax | Eredivisie | 1-2 |
| 2024-02-18 | Ajax | NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie | 2-2 |
| 2023-12-03 | NEC Nijmegen | Ajax | Eredivisie | 1-2 |
| 2023-03-05 | Ajax | NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie | 1-0 |
| 2023-01-08 | NEC Nijmegen | Ajax | Eredivisie | 1-1 |
| 2022-04-23 | NEC Nijmegen | Ajax | Eredivisie | 0-1 |
| 2021-08-14 | Ajax | NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie | 5-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 72.2%, draw 16.3%, away 11.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.31 | 5.99 | 8.80 |
| Bet365 | 1.30 | 5.50 | 8.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.29 | 5.75 | 8.50 |
| Betano | 1.34 | 5.80 | 7.60 |
| Betfair | 1.25 | 6.00 | 8.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.33 | 6.20 | 8.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.28 | 5.65 | 8.30 |
| Pinnacle | 1.32 | 5.96 | 7.33 |
| SBO | 1.27 | 5.13 | 6.28 |
| William Hill | 1.30 | 5.00 | 8.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
44 snapshots recorded, from .