Ajax
vs
NEC Nijmegen
1 – 1 Full time
| 7′ | Tolu Arokodare | ||
| 17′ | Jorthy Mokio | ||
| 19′ | Tjaronn Chery | ||
| 33′ | Bryan Linssen | ||
| 54′ | Gabriel·Bras | ||
| 60′ | Oscar GloukhAbdellah Ouazane | ||
| 60′ | Viktor TsygankovSimon Adingra | ||
| 67′ | Abdellah Ouazane | ||
| 72′ | Perr SchuursAhmetcan Kaplan | ||
| 73′ | Bryan LinssenMitchel Bakker | ||
| 73′ | Tolu ArokodareMarcos Leonardo Santos Almeida | ||
| 73′ | Lucas Oliveira·RosaAaron Bouwman | ||
| 80′ | Owen WijndalDavy Klaassen | ||
| 82′ | Kevin KersJamiro Monteiro | ||
| 82′ | Tjaronn CheryWillum Thor Willumsson |
Match stats
| 18 | Shots | 8 |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Shots on target | 2 |
| 61 | Possession % | 39 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 8 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Offsides | 5 |
| 1 | Saves | 4 |
| 406 | Accurate passes | 216 |
Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen
| Probability | Ajax | Draw | NEC Nijmegen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 85.4% | 9.1% | 5.5% |
| Market | 71.1% | 16.3% | 12.5% |
| Final | 74.7% | 14.5% | 10.8% |
| Edge | +3.6% | -1.8% | -1.8% |
Why Ajax
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.90 vs 1.08.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Ajax below our published probability: +3.6 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Ajax and NEC Nijmegen expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.98
Ajax and NEC Nijmegen attack and defence ratings
Ajax
NEC Nijmegen
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen: result vs prediction
Ajax 1 – 1 NEC Nijmegen
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ajax | 74.7% | 1.34 | +3.6% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 87.3% | 1.15 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.1% | 1.54 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 89.2% | 1.12 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Ajax win | 71.7% | 1.40 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ajax | 74.7% |
| Draw | 14.5% | |
| NEC Nijmegen | 10.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 87.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 12.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.1% |
| No | 34.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 89.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 85.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 25.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Ajax win | 71.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 13.8% | |
| Loss | 14.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 3-1 | 7.4% |
| 4-1 | 7.2% | |
| 3-0 | 6.8% |
Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen stats
Ajax and NEC Nijmegen recent form
| Ajax |
DWWLWW |
| NEC Nijmegen |
DLLDLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Ajax and NEC Nijmegen going into this match
Ajax record
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 3.0 goals per match.
- They average 3.7 goals per game on the road against 2.5 at home.
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
NEC Nijmegen record
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-21 | Ajax | NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie | 1-1 |
| 2025-12-20 | NEC Nijmegen | Ajax | Eredivisie | 2-2 |
| 2025-05-11 | Ajax | NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie | 0-3 |
| 2024-12-01 | NEC Nijmegen | Ajax | Eredivisie | 1-2 |
| 2024-02-18 | Ajax | NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie | 2-2 |
| 2023-12-03 | NEC Nijmegen | Ajax | Eredivisie | 1-2 |
| 2023-03-05 | Ajax | NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie | 1-0 |
| 2023-01-08 | NEC Nijmegen | Ajax | Eredivisie | 1-1 |
| 2022-04-23 | NEC Nijmegen | Ajax | Eredivisie | 0-1 |
| 2021-08-14 | Ajax | NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie | 5-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 71.1%, draw 16.3%, away 12.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.34 | 5.90 | 7.90 |
| Bet365 | 1.33 | 5.50 | 7.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.30 | 6.00 | 7.50 |
| Betano | 1.36 | 6.10 | 8.00 |
| Betfair | 1.30 | 5.50 | 7.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.35 | 6.20 | 7.40 |
| Marathonbet | 1.31 | 5.60 | 7.50 |
| Pinnacle | 1.34 | 6.26 | 7.31 |
| SBO | 1.31 | 5.51 | 6.28 |
| William Hill | 1.30 | 5.50 | 7.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
46 snapshots recorded, from .