Lokomotiv Sofia
vs
Botev Vratsa
Garuda Lions Prediction: Lokomotiv Sofia
1 – 0 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Lokomotiv Sofia vs Botev Vratsa overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Lokomotiv Sofia vs Botev Vratsa
| Probability | Lokomotiv Sofia | Draw | Botev Vratsa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43.1% | 28.1% | 28.8% |
| Market | 50.6% | 26.2% | 23.3% |
| Final | 48.7% | 26.6% | 24.6% |
| Edge | -7.5% | +2.0% | +5.5% |
Why Lokomotiv Sofia
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.49 vs 1.18.
Best available price on the pick: 1.95, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Lokomotiv Sofia vs Botev Vratsa match preview
Lokomotiv Sofia faces Botev Vratsa in a Bulgaria First League match, with Lokomotiv Sofia holding a 49% probability of winning compared to Botev Vratsa's 25%. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 1-0, which occurs with a 9% probability. Both teams have shown mixed recent form, with Lokomotiv Sofia recording draws and losses, while Botev Vratsa has experienced a win followed by a loss.
In terms of expected goals, Lokomotiv Sofia is forecasted to score 1.49, while Botev Vratsa is expected to net 1.18. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored, and both teams have a 55% probability of scoring. Historically, in their last three encounters, Lokomotiv Sofia has not secured a win, with Botev Vratsa winning twice and one match ending in a draw.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Lokomotiv Sofia and Botev Vratsa expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.66
Lokomotiv Sofia and Botev Vratsa attack and defence ratings
Lokomotiv Sofia
Botev Vratsa
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Lokomotiv Sofia vs Botev Vratsa markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lokomotiv Sofia | 48.7% | 2.05 | -7.5% | 1.95 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 50.3% | 1.99 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.7% | 1.83 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.4% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 56.9% | 1.76 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lokomotiv Sofia | 48.7% |
| Draw | 26.6% | |
| Botev Vratsa | 24.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 50.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.7% |
| No | 45.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 51.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Lokomotiv Sofia win | 21.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.3% | |
| Loss | 56.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.4% |
| 1-0 | 9.1% | |
| 2-1 | 9.1% |
Lokomotiv Sofia vs Botev Vratsa stats
Lokomotiv Sofia and Botev Vratsa recent form
| Lokomotiv Sofia |
DWLDLD |
| Botev Vratsa |
LDDWLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Lokomotiv Sofia and Botev Vratsa season so far
Lokomotiv Sofia record
- They have won 1 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
Botev Vratsa record
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game on the road against 0.5 at home.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
Lokomotiv Sofia vs Botev Vratsa head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-05 | Lokomotiv Sofia | Botev Vratsa | Bulgaria First League | 2-2 |
| 2026-04-14 | Botev Vratsa | Lokomotiv Sofia | Bulgaria First League | 3-2 |
| 2025-11-08 | Lokomotiv Sofia | Botev Vratsa | Bulgaria First League | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Lokomotiv Sofia vs Botev Vratsa odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 49.9%, draw 26.8%, away 23.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.83 | 3.54 | 3.99 |
| Bet365 | 1.95 | 3.30 | 3.60 |
| Betfair | 1.95 | 3.30 | 3.40 |
| Marathonbet | 1.81 | 3.54 | 3.98 |
| Pinnacle | 1.84 | 3.59 | 4.05 |
| William Hill | 1.80 | 3.30 | 3.90 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
11 snapshots recorded, from .