Bulgaria First League · 2026-10-10T14:30:00Z UTC Full time ·Matchday 11

Lokomotiv Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv

1 – 1 Full time

7′			Ryan Leijten
27′			Angel Lyaskov
33′			Mohamed Medfai
45′			Efe AliParvizdzhon Umarbaev
53′			Christ Longville
58′			Christ Longvilleali dalil
59′			Ryan LeijtenJulien Lamy
59′			Ante AralicaJoyce Kati Katulondi
59′			Mohamed MedfaiIvan Yordanov
63′			Ivan Yordanov
64′			Todor Pavlov
72′			Kaloyan Kostov
74′			Todor PavlovAnton Fase
74′			Julian IlievMiha·Trdan
79′			Adil Taoui
81′			Krasimir StanoevErol Dost
81′			Kaloyan KostovReyan Daskalov
85′			Reyan Daskalov
85′			Adil TaouiGeorgi Minchev

Lokomotiv Stadium, SofiaReferee: Piskov·Gero

Lokomotiv Sofia

46%

Draw

29%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

25%

Confidence: Low · blended with market odds

Match stats

11	Shots	8
4	Shots on target	3
64	Possession %	36
10	Corners	2

Lokomotiv Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Lokomotiv Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv

model vs market on the 1X2

Probability	Lokomotiv Sofia	Draw	Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Model	47.3%	30.4%	22.2%
Market	45.6%	28.8%	25.6%
Final	46.0%	29.2%	24.8%
Edge	+0.4%	+0.4%	-0.8%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Lokomotiv Sofia

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.35 vs 0.85.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals

88%

2+ goals

66%

3+ goals

38%

No goals

12%

Lokomotiv Sofia and Lokomotiv Plovdiv expected goals

Lokomotiv Sofia

1.35

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

0.85

Total expected goals: 2.21

Lokomotiv Sofia and Lokomotiv Plovdiv attack and defence ratings

Lokomotiv Sofia

Attack

0.97 -3%

Defence

1.34 +34%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

Attack

0.60 -40%

Defence

1.08 +8%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Lokomotiv Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv: result vs prediction

Lokomotiv Sofia 1 – 1 Lokomotiv Plovdiv

Market	Outcome
1X2 pick	✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick	✓ Correct
BTTS pick	✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 11 fixtures

Bulgaria First League

Botev Vratsa vs Spartak Varna — team news & stats · 2026-10-10
Botev Plovdiv vs Slavia Sofia — team news & stats · 2026-10-10
Septemvri Sofia v Dunav Ruse — match page · 2026-10-11
Cherno More Varna vs Levski Sofia · 2026-10-11
CSKA 1948 v CSKA Sofia — match page · 2026-10-11
Ludogorets v Arda Kardzhali — match page · 2026-10-12

Before and after this match

Lokomotiv Sofia, previous: Spartak Varna v Lokomotiv Sofia analysis
Lokomotiv Sofia, next: Lokomotiv Sofia v Botev Vratsa analysis
Lokomotiv Plovdiv, previous: Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs CSKA Sofia prediction
Lokomotiv Plovdiv, next: Lokomotiv Plovdiv – Slavia Sofia, 2026-10-26

Lokomotiv Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market

Market	Model pick	Probability	Fair odds	Edge	Best price
1X2	Lokomotiv Sofia	46.0%	2.17	+0.4%	—
Over/Under 2.5	Under 2.5	62.1%	1.61	—	—
Both teams to score	No	56.2%	1.78	—	—
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	75.2%	1.33	—	—
Handicap -1	Loss	52.7%	1.90	—	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid

Market	Selection	Probability
1X2	Lokomotiv Sofia	46.0%
	Draw	29.2%
	Lokomotiv Plovdiv	24.8%
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	37.9%
	Under 2.5	62.1%
Both teams to score	Yes	43.8%
	No	56.2%
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	75.2%
	12 (either side)	70.8%
	X2 (draw or away)	54.0%
Handicap -1	Lokomotiv Sofia win	23.2%
	Push (exactly one goal)	24.1%
	Loss	52.7%
Correct score (top 3)	1-1	14.0%
	1-0	13.7%
	0-0	12.3%

Lokomotiv Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv stats

Lokomotiv Sofia and Lokomotiv Plovdiv recent form

newest first

Lokomotiv Sofia	WLDLDL
Lokomotiv Plovdiv	DLWLLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Lokomotiv Sofia and Lokomotiv Plovdiv going into this match

league record before kick-off

Lokomotiv Sofia record

They have won 1 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
They average 1.3 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.

Lokomotiv Plovdiv record

They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.0 on the road.
They have failed to score in 6 of 10 matches.

Lokomotiv Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

0Lokomotiv Sofia wins 5Draws 5Lokomotiv Plovdiv wins

Date	Home	Away	Competition	Score
2026-04-03	Lokomotiv Plovdiv	Lokomotiv Sofia	Bulgaria First League	1-0
2025-10-24	Lokomotiv Sofia	Lokomotiv Plovdiv	Bulgaria First League	2-2
2025-07-09	Lokomotiv Plovdiv	Lokomotiv Sofia	Friendlies Clubs	1-1
2025-05-02	Lokomotiv Plovdiv	Lokomotiv Sofia	First League	1-1
2025-02-23	Lokomotiv Sofia	Lokomotiv Plovdiv	First League	0-1
2024-09-01	Lokomotiv Plovdiv	Lokomotiv Sofia	First League	1-1
2023-11-10	Lokomotiv Plovdiv	Lokomotiv Sofia	First League	2-1
2023-07-23	Lokomotiv Sofia	Lokomotiv Plovdiv	First League	2-4
2023-02-25	Lokomotiv Plovdiv	Lokomotiv Sofia	First League	1-0
2022-08-15	Lokomotiv Sofia	Lokomotiv Plovdiv	First League	0-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Lokomotiv Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 45.6%, draw 28.8%, away 25.6%.

Bookmaker	1	X	2
1xBet	2.07	3.20	3.52
Bet365	2.00	3.30	3.90
BetVictor	2.05	3.30	3.70
Betano	2.00	3.25	3.65
Betfair	2.00	3.10	3.50
Dafabet	2.02	3.30	3.65
Marathonbet	2.05	3.20	3.50
Pinnacle	2.09	3.28	3.73
William Hill	2.05	3.00	3.40

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.05 ▼ -0.07

X 3.25 —

2 3.65 ▲ +0.35

13 snapshots recorded, from 2026-10-04T08:10:02Z.