Lokomotiv Sofia
vs
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Garuda Lions Prediction: Lokomotiv Sofia
1 – 0 Predicted score · 14% model probability
Lokomotiv Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Lokomotiv Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv
| Probability | Lokomotiv Sofia | Draw | Lokomotiv Plovdiv |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47.3% | 30.4% | 22.2% |
| Market | 48.3% | 28.0% | 23.7% |
| Final | 48.1% | 28.6% | 23.3% |
| Edge | -1.0% | +2.5% | -1.5% |
Why Lokomotiv Sofia
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.36 vs 0.85.
Best available price on the pick: 1.96, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Lokomotiv Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv match preview
Lokomotiv Sofia faces Lokomotiv Plovdiv in the Bulgaria First League with Lokomotiv Sofia holding a 47% probability of winning, while a draw stands at 30% and Lokomotiv Plovdiv at 22%. The expected goals for Lokomotiv Sofia is 1.36 compared to 0.85 for Lokomotiv Plovdiv, suggesting a slight advantage for the home side. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, occurring with a 14% probability.
In terms of recent form, Lokomotiv Sofia has recorded one win, two draws, and three losses in their last six matches. Conversely, Lokomotiv Plovdiv has struggled with one win, one draw, and four losses in the same timeframe. The head-to-head record shows Lokomotiv Sofia with no wins, one draw, and one loss against Lokomotiv Plovdiv in their last two encounters.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Lokomotiv Sofia and Lokomotiv Plovdiv expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.21
Lokomotiv Sofia and Lokomotiv Plovdiv attack and defence ratings
Lokomotiv Sofia
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Lokomotiv Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lokomotiv Sofia | 48.1% | 2.08 | -1.0% | 1.96 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 62.1% | 1.61 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 56.2% | 1.78 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.7% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 52.7% | 1.90 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lokomotiv Sofia | 48.1% |
| Draw | 28.6% | |
| Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 23.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 37.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 62.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43.8% |
| No | 56.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 51.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Lokomotiv Sofia win | 23.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.1% | |
| Loss | 52.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.0% |
| 1-0 | 13.7% | |
| 0-0 | 12.3% |
Lokomotiv Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv stats
Lokomotiv Sofia and Lokomotiv Plovdiv recent form
| Lokomotiv Sofia |
WLDLDL |
| Lokomotiv Plovdiv |
DLWLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Lokomotiv Sofia and Lokomotiv Plovdiv season so far
Lokomotiv Sofia record
- They have won 1 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv record
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.0 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 10 matches.
Lokomotiv Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-03 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | Lokomotiv Sofia | Bulgaria First League | 1-0 |
| 2025-10-24 | Lokomotiv Sofia | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | Bulgaria First League | 2-2 |
| 2025-07-09 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | Lokomotiv Sofia | Friendlies Clubs | 1-1 |
| 2025-05-02 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | Lokomotiv Sofia | First League | 1-1 |
| 2025-02-23 | Lokomotiv Sofia | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | First League | 0-1 |
| 2024-09-01 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | Lokomotiv Sofia | First League | 1-1 |
| 2023-11-10 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | Lokomotiv Sofia | First League | 2-1 |
| 2023-07-23 | Lokomotiv Sofia | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | First League | 2-4 |
| 2023-02-25 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | Lokomotiv Sofia | First League | 1-0 |
| 2022-08-15 | Lokomotiv Sofia | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | First League | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Lokomotiv Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 48.3%, draw 28.0%, away 23.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.91 | 3.30 | 3.96 |
| Bet365 | 1.90 | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| BetVictor | 1.91 | 3.25 | 3.90 |
| Betano | 1.95 | 3.30 | 3.80 |
| Betfair | 1.91 | 3.30 | 3.80 |
| Dafabet | 1.95 | 3.40 | 3.85 |
| Marathonbet | 1.89 | 3.30 | 3.94 |
| Pinnacle | 1.96 | 3.31 | 3.89 |
| William Hill | 1.91 | 3.00 | 3.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .