Bulgaria First League
·
Full time
·Matchday 10
Spartak Varna
vs
Lokomotiv Sofia
0 – 1 Full time
| 22′ | Ante Aralica | ||
| 45′ | Erol Dost | ||
| 58′ | Angel Granchov | ||
| 61′ | Angel Granchov | ||
| 62′ | Angel GranchovZakaria Tindano | ||
| 62′ | Tomas SilvaJoao Lopes | ||
| 62′ | Ahmed AhmedovOkoh chidera | ||
| 69′ | mikhailov tsvetoslav marinov | ||
| 76′ | boris ivanovEdson Martinho Silva | ||
| 76′ | Erol Dostkristian chachev | ||
| 76′ | Ante Aralicacaruzo caue | ||
| 76′ | Adil TaouiMohamed Medfai | ||
| 79′ | mikhailov tsvetoslav marinovTsvetelin Chunchukov | ||
| 83′ | Mohamed Medfai | ||
| 86′ | Dimitar Kostadinov | ||
| 86′ | Dimitar Kostadinovnikola neychev | ||
| 90′ | Ryan Bidounga |
Spartak Varna
39%
Draw
27%
Lokomotiv Sofia
34%
Match stats
| 14 | Shots | 12 |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Shots on target | 3 |
| 54 | Possession % | 46 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
Spartak Varna vs Lokomotiv Sofia overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Spartak Varna vs Lokomotiv Sofia
| Probability | Spartak Varna | Draw | Lokomotiv Sofia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50.1% | 25.5% | 24.4% |
| Market | 35.1% | 28.1% | 36.8% |
| Final | 38.9% | 27.4% | 33.7% |
| Edge | +15.0% | -2.5% | -12.4% |
Why Spartak Varna
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.77 vs 1.19.
- The market prices Spartak Varna below the model: +15.0 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
94%
2+ goals
81%
3+ goals
57%
No goals
6%
Spartak Varna and Lokomotiv Sofia expected goals
Spartak Varna
1.77
Lokomotiv Sofia
1.19
Total expected goals: 2.96
Spartak Varna and Lokomotiv Sofia attack and defence ratings
Spartak Varna
Attack
0.94 -6%
Defence
1.10 +10%
Lokomotiv Sofia
Attack
1.01 +1%
Defence
1.45 +45%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Spartak Varna vs Lokomotiv Sofia: result vs prediction
Spartak Varna 0 – 1 Lokomotiv Sofia
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Spartak Varna vs Lokomotiv Sofia markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Spartak Varna | 38.9% | 2.57 | +15.0% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.8% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.8% | 1.70 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.6% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 49.9% | 2.00 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Spartak Varna | 38.9% |
| Draw | 27.4% | |
| Lokomotiv Sofia | 33.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 43.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.8% |
| No | 41.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 66.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 61.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Spartak Varna win | 28.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.8% | |
| Loss | 49.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.0% |
| 2-1 | 9.7% | |
| 2-0 | 8.2% |
Spartak Varna vs Lokomotiv Sofia stats
Spartak Varna and Lokomotiv Sofia recent form
| Spartak Varna |
DDDLLL |
| Lokomotiv Sofia |
LDLDLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Spartak Varna and Lokomotiv Sofia going into this match
Spartak Varna record
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
Lokomotiv Sofia record
- They have won 0 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
Spartak Varna vs Lokomotiv Sofia head-to-head
Last 9 meetings
3Spartak Varna wins
3Draws
3Lokomotiv Sofia wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-22 | Spartak Varna | Lokomotiv Sofia | Bulgaria First League | 3-0 |
| 2026-02-13 | Spartak Varna | Lokomotiv Sofia | Bulgaria First League | 2-2 |
| 2025-08-22 | Lokomotiv Sofia | Spartak Varna | Bulgaria First League | 0-0 |
| 2025-03-28 | Lokomotiv Sofia | Spartak Varna | First League | 2-1 |
| 2024-10-06 | Spartak Varna | Lokomotiv Sofia | First League | 3-2 |
| 2023-11-18 | Lokomotiv Sofia | Spartak Varna | Cup | 0-0 |
| 2023-03-11 | Spartak Varna | Lokomotiv Sofia | First League | 1-2 |
| 2022-08-27 | Lokomotiv Sofia | Spartak Varna | First League | 3-2 |
| 2020-09-29 | Spartak Varna | Lokomotiv Sofia | Cup | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Spartak Varna vs Lokomotiv Sofia odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 35.1%, draw 28.1%, away 36.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.62 | 3.28 | 2.50 |
| Bet365 | 2.75 | 3.25 | 2.55 |
| BetVictor | 2.70 | 3.40 | 2.55 |
| Betano | 2.67 | 3.20 | 2.55 |
| Betfair | 2.50 | 3.30 | 2.50 |
| Marathonbet | 2.62 | 3.28 | 2.50 |
| Pinnacle | 2.69 | 3.47 | 2.56 |
| SBO | 2.46 | 3.02 | 2.41 |
| William Hill | 2.50 | 3.10 | 2.45 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
2.62 ▲ +0.02
X
3.28 ▲ +0.03
2
2.50 —
13 snapshots recorded, from .