Bulgaria First League
·
Full time
·Matchday 10
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
vs
CSKA Sofia
1 – 1 Full time
| 10′ | Parvizdzhon Umarbaev | ||
| 18′ | Ioannis Pittas | ||
| 43′ | Ryan lucas | ||
| 46′ | D. Mrankovali dalil | ||
| 67′ | junior burban | ||
| 68′ | Parvizdzhon Umarbaev | ||
| 74′ | teodor ivanovLeonardo Augusto dos Santos Pereira | ||
| 75′ | Christ LongvilleRyan Leijten | ||
| 75′ | Efe AliMiha·Trdan | ||
| 78′ | Parvizdzhon UmarbaevJulien Lamy | ||
| 83′ | David Samuel Custódio LimaBarry Cotter | ||
| 85′ | Barry Cotter | ||
| 88′ | James Eto'oSantiago Godoy | ||
| 90′ | CSKA Sofia |
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
14%
Draw
25%
CSKA Sofia
61%
Match stats
| 9 | Shots | 11 |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Shots on target | 4 |
| 32 | Possession % | 68 |
| 1 | Corners | 12 |
Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs CSKA Sofia overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs CSKA Sofia
| Probability | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | Draw | CSKA Sofia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 12.8% | 25.0% | 62.2% |
| Market | 14.9% | 24.6% | 60.5% |
| Final | 14.3% | 24.7% | 60.9% |
| Edge | -2.1% | +0.4% | +1.6% |
Why CSKA Sofia
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.74 vs 0.67.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
90%
2+ goals
70%
3+ goals
43%
No goals
10%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv and CSKA Sofia expected goals
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
0.67
CSKA Sofia
1.74
Total expected goals: 2.41
Lokomotiv Plovdiv and CSKA Sofia attack and defence ratings
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Attack
0.58 -42%
Defence
1.08 +8%
CSKA Sofia
Attack
1.51 +51%
Defence
0.88 -12%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs CSKA Sofia: result vs prediction
Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1 – 1 CSKA Sofia
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs CSKA Sofia markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | CSKA Sofia | 60.9% | 1.64 | +1.6% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 56.9% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 58.9% | 1.70 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 85.7% | 1.17 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 37.7% | 2.65 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 14.3% |
| Draw | 24.7% | |
| CSKA Sofia | 60.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 43.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 56.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 41.1% |
| No | 58.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 39.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 85.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | CSKA Sofia win | 36.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.7% | |
| Loss | 37.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-1 | 14.7% |
| 0-2 | 13.6% | |
| 1-1 | 11.5% |
Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs CSKA Sofia stats
Lokomotiv Plovdiv and CSKA Sofia recent form
| Lokomotiv Plovdiv |
LWLLLL |
| CSKA Sofia |
WWDWLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv and CSKA Sofia going into this match
Lokomotiv Plovdiv record
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.0 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 9 matches.
CSKA Sofia record
- They have won 7 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
- They average 3.4 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 53% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs CSKA Sofia head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
3Lokomotiv Plovdiv wins
3Draws
4CSKA Sofia wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-20 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | CSKA Sofia | Cup | 1-1 |
| 2025-12-03 | CSKA Sofia | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | Bulgaria First League | 2-1 |
| 2025-08-02 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | CSKA Sofia | Bulgaria First League | 1-0 |
| 2025-04-12 | CSKA Sofia | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | First League | 2-0 |
| 2024-11-02 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | CSKA Sofia | First League | 2-2 |
| 2024-05-26 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | CSKA Sofia | First League | 1-0 |
| 2024-04-03 | CSKA Sofia | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | First League | 1-2 |
| 2023-10-02 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | CSKA Sofia | First League | 0-2 |
| 2023-05-27 | CSKA Sofia | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | First League | 1-0 |
| 2023-03-04 | CSKA Sofia | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | First League | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs CSKA Sofia odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 14.9%, draw 24.6%, away 60.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 6.23 | 3.76 | 1.53 |
| Bet365 | 6.50 | 3.90 | 1.55 |
| BetVictor | 6.50 | 3.90 | 1.53 |
| Betano | 6.20 | 3.70 | 1.55 |
| Betfair | 6.00 | 3.80 | 1.44 |
| Marathonbet | 6.30 | 3.76 | 1.51 |
| Pinnacle | 6.74 | 3.85 | 1.54 |
| SBO | 5.32 | 3.55 | 1.48 |
| William Hill | 6.00 | 3.50 | 1.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
6.23 ▼ -0.32
X
3.76 ▼ -0.14
2
1.53 ▲ +0.07
12 snapshots recorded, from .