Garuda Lions
Today
Bulgaria First League · Full time ·Matchday 10

Arda Kardzhali vs Cherno More Varna

1 – 1 Full time

46′Birsent KaragarenAntonio Vutov
62′Antonio Vutov
63′Preslav·BachevGeorgi Nikolaev Nikolov
63′Adama Ardile TraoreViktor Lyubenov
70′georgi lazarov
74′Antonio Vutov
78′Vyacheslav Velev
78′Stanislav IvanovAtanas Kabov
79′Zhivko Atanasov
81′georgi lazarov
82′Asen DonchevIvan·Tasev
82′Berk BeyhanVasil Panayotov
82′Miguel barandasAleksandar Todorov
87′Martin Paskalev
87′Zhivko Atanasov
88′Mohamed Achi BouaklineGeorgi ventsislavov
90′Atanas Kabov
90′Idris·Bounaasmartin banev

Arena Arda, KerdjaliReferee: Georgi Nikolov Kabakov

Arda Kardzhali 56%
Draw 25%
Cherno More Varna 19%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

10 Shots 9
3 Shots on target 5
54 Possession % 46
2 Corners 4

Arda Kardzhali vs Cherno More Varna overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Arda Kardzhali vs Cherno More Varna

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityArda KardzhaliDrawCherno More Varna
Model65.5%19.0%15.6%
Market53.3%27.1%19.6%
Final56.3%25.1%18.6%
Edge+12.2%-8.1%-4.0%

Confidence: Low

Why Arda Kardzhali

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.51 vs 1.20.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Arda Kardzhali below the model: +12.2 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Arda Kardzhali ↓ / Cherno More Va → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 5% 8% 2 8% 9% 6% 3 6% 8% 5% 4+ 7% 9% 5%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 97%
2+ goals 89%
3+ goals 72%
No goals 3%

Arda Kardzhali and Cherno More Varna expected goals

Arda Kardzhali 2.51
Cherno More Varna 1.20

Total expected goals: 3.72

Arda Kardzhali and Cherno More Varna attack and defence ratings

Arda Kardzhali

Attack 1.28 +28%
Defence 1.12 +12%

Cherno More Varna

Attack 1.00 +0%
Defence 1.51 +51%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Arda Kardzhali vs Cherno More Varna: result vs prediction

Arda Kardzhali 1 – 1 Cherno More Varna

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 10 fixtures

Bulgaria First League

Before and after this match

Arda Kardzhali vs Cherno More Varna markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Arda Kardzhali 56.3% 1.78 +12.2% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 71.9% 1.39 — —
Both teams to score Yes 65.0% 1.54 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 81.4% 1.23 — —
Handicap -1 Arda Kardzhali win 44.5% 2.25 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Arda Kardzhali56.3%
Draw25.1%
Cherno More Varna18.6%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.571.9%
Under 2.528.1%
Both teams to scoreYes65.0%
No35.0%
Double chance1X (home or draw)81.4%
12 (either side)74.9%
X2 (draw or away)43.7%
Handicap -1Arda Kardzhali win44.5%
Push (exactly one goal)20.7%
Loss34.9%
Correct score (top 3)2-19.2%
1-18.0%
3-17.8%

Arda Kardzhali vs Cherno More Varna stats

Arda Kardzhali and Cherno More Varna recent form

newest first
Arda Kardzhali LLWWWW
Cherno More Varna DLLWLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Arda Kardzhali and Cherno More Varna going into this match

league record before kick-off

Arda Kardzhali record

  • They have won 5 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Cherno More Varna record

  • They have won 1 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.

Arda Kardzhali vs Cherno More Varna head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

3Arda Kardzhali wins 5Draws 2Cherno More Varna wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-05-25Cherno More VarnaArda KardzhaliBulgaria First League2-3
2026-05-03Arda KardzhaliCherno More VarnaBulgaria First League0-0
2026-03-04Cherno More VarnaArda KardzhaliBulgaria First League0-0
2025-12-12Cherno More VarnaArda KardzhaliCup0-3
2025-09-22Arda KardzhaliCherno More VarnaBulgaria First League0-1
2025-05-18Arda KardzhaliCherno More VarnaFirst League0-0
2025-05-04Cherno More VarnaArda KardzhaliFirst League1-1
2025-04-02Arda KardzhaliCherno More VarnaFirst League4-0
2024-09-15Cherno More VarnaArda KardzhaliFirst League1-1
2023-11-07Cherno More VarnaArda KardzhaliFirst League1-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Arda Kardzhali vs Cherno More Varna odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 53.3%, draw 27.1%, away 19.6%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.73 3.46 4.70
Bet365 1.70 3.50 5.25
BetVictor 1.70 3.40 4.80
Betano 1.75 3.40 4.70
Betfair 1.70 3.30 4.60
Marathonbet 1.71 3.46 4.70
Pinnacle 1.73 3.61 4.86
SBO 1.81 2.93 3.65
William Hill 1.75 3.20 4.50

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.73 ▼ -0.04
X 3.40 ▲ +0.02
2 4.70 ▲ +0.11

13 snapshots recorded, from .