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Bulgaria First League · Full time ·Matchday 9

CSKA Sofia vs Arda Kardzhali

4 – 1 Full time

2′Birsent Karagaren
34′Dominik Yankov
41′Stefano Sensi
42′Vyacheslav Velev
45′Jean-Philippe Gbamin
46′Cătălin ItuLeonardo Augusto dos Santos Pereira
46′Dominik YankovAdama Ardile Traore
48′Leonardo Augusto dos Santos Pereira
53′Joel·Zwarts
66′Stefano Sensipetko panayotov
66′James Eto'omohamed brahimi
66′Birsent KaragarenAtanas Kabov
66′Georgi Nikolaev NikolovPreslav·Bachev
71′Joel·ZwartsSantiago Godoy
72′Ioannis Pittas
82′David Samuel Custódio LimaBarry Cotter
85′Arda Kardzhali
86′Arda Kardzhali
89′Viktor PopovDimitar Velkovski
90′Arda Kardzhali

National Stadium Vasil Levski, SofiaReferee: M. Pavlov

CSKA Sofia 49%
Draw 28%
Arda Kardzhali 23%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

17 Shots 7
9 Shots on target 6
57 Possession % 43
4 Corners 3

CSKA Sofia vs Arda Kardzhali overview

Garuda Lions analysis: CSKA Sofia vs Arda Kardzhali

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityCSKA SofiaDrawArda Kardzhali
Model39.2%26.9%33.9%
Market52.1%28.4%19.5%
Final48.8%28.1%23.1%
Edge-12.9%-1.5%+14.4%

Confidence: Low

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

CSKA Sofia ↓ / Arda Kardzhali → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 7% 6% 1 7% 13% 8% 2 9% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 93%
2+ goals 80%
3+ goals 56%
No goals 7%

CSKA Sofia and Arda Kardzhali expected goals

CSKA Sofia 1.52
Arda Kardzhali 1.40

Total expected goals: 2.92

CSKA Sofia and Arda Kardzhali attack and defence ratings

CSKA Sofia

Attack 1.34 +34%
Defence 0.99 -1%

Arda Kardzhali

Attack 1.32 +32%
Defence 0.87 -13%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

CSKA Sofia vs Arda Kardzhali: result vs prediction

CSKA Sofia 4 – 1 Arda Kardzhali

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 9 fixtures

Bulgaria First League

Before and after this match

CSKA Sofia vs Arda Kardzhali markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 CSKA Sofia 48.8% 2.05 -12.9% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 55.8% 1.79 — —
Both teams to score Yes 60.0% 1.67 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 76.9% 1.30 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 60.8% 1.65 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2CSKA Sofia48.8%
Draw28.1%
Arda Kardzhali23.1%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.555.8%
Under 2.544.2%
Both teams to scoreYes60.0%
No40.0%
Double chance1X (home or draw)76.9%
12 (either side)71.9%
X2 (draw or away)51.2%
Handicap -1CSKA Sofia win19.7%
Push (exactly one goal)19.5%
Loss60.8%
Correct score (top 3)1-112.6%
2-18.7%
1-28.0%

CSKA Sofia vs Arda Kardzhali stats

CSKA Sofia and Arda Kardzhali recent form

newest first
CSKA Sofia DWLLWL
Arda Kardzhali LWWWWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

CSKA Sofia and Arda Kardzhali going into this match

league record before kick-off

CSKA Sofia record

  • They have won 5 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
  • They average 3.2 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
  • 56% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Arda Kardzhali record

  • They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

CSKA Sofia vs Arda Kardzhali head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

6CSKA Sofia wins 2Draws 2Arda Kardzhali wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-02-06CSKA SofiaArda KardzhaliBulgaria First League3-1
2025-09-18Arda KardzhaliCSKA SofiaBulgaria First League1-0
2025-05-31Arda KardzhaliCSKA SofiaFirst League1-1
2025-02-26CSKA SofiaArda KardzhaliCup2-1
2025-02-16CSKA SofiaArda KardzhaliFirst League2-0
2024-08-24Arda KardzhaliCSKA SofiaFirst League2-1
2024-04-21Arda KardzhaliCSKA SofiaFirst League2-3
2024-02-28CSKA SofiaArda KardzhaliCup1-0
2023-10-27CSKA SofiaArda KardzhaliFirst League0-0
2022-10-28Arda KardzhaliCSKA SofiaFirst League1-3

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

CSKA Sofia vs Arda Kardzhali odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 52.2%, draw 28.2%, away 19.6%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.80 3.15 4.99
Bet365 1.75 3.50 4.75
BetVictor 1.80 3.50 4.50
Betano 1.75 3.30 4.80
Betfair 1.73 3.50 4.20
Dafabet 1.75 3.35 4.80
Marathonbet 1.78 3.15 5.00
Pinnacle 1.82 3.16 5.32
SBO 1.65 3.26 4.25
Unibet 1.79 3.40 4.70
William Hill 1.80 3.20 4.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.78 ▲ +0.11
X 3.26 ▲ +0.04
2 4.75 ▼ -1.20

14 snapshots recorded, from .