Bulgaria First League
·
Full time
·Matchday 8
Arda Kardzhali
vs
Botev Plovdiv
2 – 3 Full time
| 20′ | S. Tsonov | ||
| 36′ | S. Tsonov | ||
| 43′ | Lachezar Kotev | ||
| 46′ | C. MeottiW. Chimezie | ||
| 52′ | D. YankovD. Idowu | ||
| 52′ | A. Chandarov | ||
| 61′ | P. BachevG. Nikolov | ||
| 61′ | B. KaragarenA. Kabov | ||
| 63′ | Vyacheslav Velev | ||
| 64′ | S. TsonovMascote | ||
| 74′ | A. ChandarovH. Jocu | ||
| 75′ | S. KaluD. Tonev | ||
| 79′ | V. Velev | ||
| 80′ | S. IvanovA. Vutov | ||
| 83′ | A. Vutov | ||
| 84′ | M. RodriguesB. Kostov | ||
| 85′ | Dimitar Tonev | ||
| 89′ | Svetoslav Kovachev |
Arda Kardzhali
50%
Draw
27%
Botev Plovdiv
23%
Arda Kardzhali vs Botev Plovdiv overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Arda Kardzhali vs Botev Plovdiv
| Probability | Arda Kardzhali | Draw | Botev Plovdiv |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 66.9% | 21.3% | 11.8% |
| Market | 44.4% | 29.3% | 26.4% |
| Final | 50.0% | 27.3% | 22.7% |
| Edge | +22.6% | -8.0% | -14.6% |
Why Arda Kardzhali
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.08 vs 0.77.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Arda Kardzhali below the model: +22.6 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
93%
2+ goals
79%
3+ goals
54%
No goals
7%
Arda Kardzhali and Botev Plovdiv expected goals
Arda Kardzhali
2.08
Botev Plovdiv
0.77
Total expected goals: 2.85
Arda Kardzhali and Botev Plovdiv attack and defence ratings
Arda Kardzhali
Attack
1.27 +27%
Defence
0.69 -31%
Botev Plovdiv
Attack
1.06 +6%
Defence
1.25 +25%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Arda Kardzhali vs Botev Plovdiv: result vs prediction
Arda Kardzhali 2 – 3 Botev Plovdiv
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Arda Kardzhali vs Botev Plovdiv markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Arda Kardzhali | 50.0% | 2.00 | +22.6% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.4% | 1.84 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 52.0% | 1.92 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.3% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Arda Kardzhali win | 43.1% | 2.32 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Arda Kardzhali | 50.0% |
| Draw | 27.3% | |
| Botev Plovdiv | 22.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 45.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48.0% |
| No | 52.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 50.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Arda Kardzhali win | 43.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.7% | |
| Loss | 33.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 12.5% |
| 1-0 | 11.1% | |
| 1-1 | 10.2% |
Arda Kardzhali vs Botev Plovdiv stats
Arda Kardzhali and Botev Plovdiv recent form
| Arda Kardzhali |
WWWWLW |
| Botev Plovdiv |
LLLWWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Arda Kardzhali and Botev Plovdiv going into this match
Arda Kardzhali record
- They have won 5 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Botev Plovdiv record
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- 53% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Arda Kardzhali vs Botev Plovdiv head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
5Arda Kardzhali wins
2Draws
3Botev Plovdiv wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-26 | Botev Plovdiv | Arda Kardzhali | Friendlies Clubs | 2-1 |
| 2026-05-12 | Botev Plovdiv | Arda Kardzhali | Bulgaria First League | 1-2 |
| 2026-04-26 | Arda Kardzhali | Botev Plovdiv | Bulgaria First League | 0-2 |
| 2025-12-02 | Arda Kardzhali | Botev Plovdiv | Bulgaria First League | 0-0 |
| 2025-08-04 | Botev Plovdiv | Arda Kardzhali | Bulgaria First League | 0-5 |
| 2025-03-09 | Botev Plovdiv | Arda Kardzhali | First League | 1-1 |
| 2024-09-23 | Arda Kardzhali | Botev Plovdiv | First League | 1-0 |
| 2024-05-27 | Botev Plovdiv | Arda Kardzhali | First League | 0-1 |
| 2024-05-11 | Arda Kardzhali | Botev Plovdiv | First League | 2-1 |
| 2023-12-01 | Arda Kardzhali | Botev Plovdiv | First League | 0-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Arda Kardzhali vs Botev Plovdiv odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 44.4%, draw 29.3%, away 26.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.95 | 3.20 | 3.55 |
| 1xBet | 1.99 | 3.22 | 3.84 |
| Bet365 | 2.25 | 3.10 | 3.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.95 | 3.20 | 3.75 |
| Betano | 2.20 | 3.05 | 3.35 |
| Betfair | 2.15 | 3.10 | 3.10 |
| Dafabet | 2.22 | 3.15 | 3.30 |
| Marathonbet | 2.18 | 3.12 | 3.34 |
| Pinnacle | 2.27 | 3.20 | 3.37 |
| SBO | 2.06 | 2.86 | 2.97 |
| Superbet | 2.02 | 3.25 | 3.55 |
| Unibet | 2.08 | 3.25 | 3.55 |
| William Hill | 1.95 | 3.00 | 3.70 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
2.08 ▲ +0.10
X
3.15 ▼ -0.15
2
3.50 ▼ -0.15
21 snapshots recorded, from .