Bulgaria First League · 2026-09-06T16:00:00Z UTC Full time ·Matchday 8

Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Cherno More Varna

1 – 0 Full time

21′			R. Leijten
46′			M. BarandasA. Kolev
55′			Sevi Idriz
68′			Aleksandar Kolev
70′			E. NyagolovJoao Bandaro
70′			I. TasevI. Bounaas
71′			Todor Pavlov
77′			R. LeijtenD. Ali
77′			P. UmarbaevM. Trdan
83′			D. TelesJ. Padilla
83′			V. PanayotovP. Andreev
87′			Lucas Ryan
87′			Celso Sidney
89′			I. IvanovA. Velev
89′			M. PetrovicA. Chindris
90′			Asen Donchev

Stadion Lokomotiv, PlovdivReferee: Ventsislav Mitrev, Bulgaria

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

36%

Draw

31%

Cherno More Varna

33%

Confidence: Low · blended with market odds

Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Cherno More Varna overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Cherno More Varna

model vs market on the 1X2

Probability	Lokomotiv Plovdiv	Draw	Cherno More Varna
Model	35.7%	30.7%	33.6%
Market	35.4%	31.2%	33.4%
Final	35.5%	31.0%	33.5%
Edge	+0.3%	-0.5%	+0.2%

Confidence: Low

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals

89%

2+ goals

69%

3+ goals

42%

No goals

11%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv and Cherno More Varna expected goals

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

1.20

Cherno More Varna

1.15

Total expected goals: 2.35

Lokomotiv Plovdiv and Cherno More Varna attack and defence ratings

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

Attack

0.57 -43%

Defence

1.10 +10%

Cherno More Varna

Attack

0.98 -2%

Defence

1.60 +60%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Cherno More Varna: result vs prediction

Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1 – 0 Cherno More Varna

Market	Outcome
1X2 pick	✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick	✓ Correct
BTTS pick	✓ Correct

Other Matchday 8 fixtures

Bulgaria First League

Septemvri Sofia v Botev Vratsa — match page · 2026-09-04
Arda Kardzhali vs Botev Plovdiv — team news & stats · 2026-09-04
Spartak Varna vs CSKA Sofia · 2026-09-05
Levski Sofia v CSKA 1948 — match page · 2026-09-05
Lokomotiv Sofia vs Ludogorets · 2026-09-06
Dunav Ruse v Slavia Sofia — match page · 2026-09-07

Before and after this match

Lokomotiv Plovdiv, previous: CSKA 1948 vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv: odds and pick
Lokomotiv Plovdiv, next: Botev Plovdiv v Lokomotiv Plovdiv analysis
Cherno More Varna, previous: CSKA Sofia v Cherno More Varna analysis
Cherno More Varna, next: Cherno More Varna vs Lokomotiv Sofia: odds and pick

Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Cherno More Varna markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market

Market	Model pick	Probability	Fair odds	Edge	Best price
1X2	Lokomotiv Plovdiv	35.5%	2.82	+0.3%	—
Over/Under 2.5	Under 2.5	58.4%	1.71	—	—
Both teams to score	No	51.0%	1.96	—	—
Double chance	12 (either side)	69.0%	1.45	—	—
Handicap -1	Loss	64.3%	1.56	—	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid

Market	Selection	Probability
1X2	Lokomotiv Plovdiv	35.5%
	Draw	31.0%
	Cherno More Varna	33.5%
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	41.6%
	Under 2.5	58.4%
Both teams to score	Yes	49.0%
	No	51.0%
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	66.5%
	12 (either side)	69.0%
	X2 (draw or away)	64.5%
Handicap -1	Lokomotiv Plovdiv win	15.7%
	Push (exactly one goal)	20.0%
	Loss	64.3%
Correct score (top 3)	1-1	14.5%
	0-0	10.9%
	1-0	10.1%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Cherno More Varna stats

Lokomotiv Plovdiv and Cherno More Varna recent form

newest first

Lokomotiv Plovdiv	LLLLLW
Cherno More Varna	LWLLLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Lokomotiv Plovdiv and Cherno More Varna going into this match

league record before kick-off

Lokomotiv Plovdiv record

They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.0 on the road.
They have failed to score in 5 of 8 matches.

Cherno More Varna record

They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Cherno More Varna head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

3Lokomotiv Plovdiv wins 3Draws 4Cherno More Varna wins

Date	Home	Away	Competition	Score
2026-05-12	Cherno More Varna	Lokomotiv Plovdiv	Bulgaria First League	2-0
2026-04-26	Lokomotiv Plovdiv	Cherno More Varna	Bulgaria First League	0-1
2026-02-15	Lokomotiv Plovdiv	Cherno More Varna	Bulgaria First League	1-1
2025-08-23	Cherno More Varna	Lokomotiv Plovdiv	Bulgaria First League	1-1
2025-02-08	Cherno More Varna	Lokomotiv Plovdiv	First League	1-2
2024-08-19	Lokomotiv Plovdiv	Cherno More Varna	First League	1-2
2024-04-28	Cherno More Varna	Lokomotiv Plovdiv	First League	1-0
2024-04-08	Lokomotiv Plovdiv	Cherno More Varna	First League	1-0
2023-10-07	Cherno More Varna	Lokomotiv Plovdiv	First League	2-2
2023-06-02	Lokomotiv Plovdiv	Cherno More Varna	First League	2-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Cherno More Varna odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 36.2%, draw 30.8%, away 33.0%.

Bookmaker	1	X	2
1xBet	2.62	2.97	2.77
Bet365	2.70	3.00	2.80
BetVictor	2.63	3.10	2.80
Betano	2.55	2.95	2.87
Betfair	2.38	3.00	2.80
Dafabet	2.46	3.10	2.85
Marathonbet	2.62	2.97	2.77
Pinnacle	2.70	3.06	2.85
SBO	2.29	2.85	2.60
Superbet	2.47	3.05	2.87
Unibet	2.55	3.15	2.80
William Hill	2.50	2.80	2.70

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.62 ▲ +0.33

X 2.99 ▼ -0.11

2 2.79 ▼ -0.31

24 snapshots recorded, from 2026-08-24T08:10:02Z.