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Bulgaria First League · Full time ·Matchday 7

CSKA Sofia vs Cherno More Varna

3 – 1 Full time

12′Mohamed Amine Brahimi
20′S. Sensi
28′Ventsislav Kerchev
30′J. Zwarts
39′C. Sidney
43′Luciano Squadrone
45′David Teles
48′Facundo Rodríguez
49′Zhivko Atanasov
52′Fedor Lapoukhov
62′M. BrahimiPastor
62′I. SoletJ. Eto'o
67′G. LazarovJ. Padilla
74′M. AchiM. Barandas
74′A. DonchevJoao Bandaro
76′I. PittasL. Godoy
78′Petko Panayotov
86′L. Godoy
87′V. KerchevP. Andreev
87′D. TelesI. Bounaas
89′P. PanayotovB. Jordao

Balgarska Armiya Stadium, SofiaReferee: Gero Piskov, Bulgaria

CSKA Sofia 64%
Draw 22%
Cherno More Varna 14%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

CSKA Sofia vs Cherno More Varna overview

Garuda Lions analysis: CSKA Sofia vs Cherno More Varna

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityCSKA SofiaDrawCherno More Varna
Model73.0%16.2%10.7%
Market61.6%23.7%14.8%
Final64.4%21.8%13.8%
Edge+11.5%-7.4%-4.0%

Confidence: Low

Why CSKA Sofia

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.50 vs 1.10.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices CSKA Sofia below the model: +11.5 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

CSKA Sofia ↓ / Cherno More Va → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 6% 8% 2 9% 9% 5% 3 7% 8% 4+ 8% 9% 5%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 97%
2+ goals 88%
3+ goals 70%
No goals 3%

CSKA Sofia and Cherno More Varna expected goals

CSKA Sofia 2.50
Cherno More Varna 1.10

Total expected goals: 3.60

CSKA Sofia and Cherno More Varna attack and defence ratings

CSKA Sofia

Attack 1.24 +24%
Defence 1.04 +4%

Cherno More Varna

Attack 1.00 +0%
Defence 1.55 +55%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

CSKA Sofia vs Cherno More Varna: result vs prediction

CSKA Sofia 3 – 1 Cherno More Varna

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 7 fixtures

Bulgaria First League

Before and after this match

CSKA Sofia vs Cherno More Varna markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 CSKA Sofia 64.4% 1.55 +11.5% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 72.8% 1.37 — —
Both teams to score Yes 60.6% 1.65 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 86.2% 1.16 — —
Handicap -1 CSKA Sofia win 46.1% 2.17 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2CSKA Sofia64.4%
Draw21.8%
Cherno More Varna13.8%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.572.8%
Under 2.527.2%
Both teams to scoreYes60.6%
No39.4%
Double chance1X (home or draw)86.2%
12 (either side)78.2%
X2 (draw or away)35.6%
Handicap -1CSKA Sofia win46.1%
Push (exactly one goal)20.9%
Loss33.0%
Correct score (top 3)2-18.9%
2-08.7%
3-18.2%

CSKA Sofia vs Cherno More Varna stats

CSKA Sofia and Cherno More Varna recent form

newest first
CSKA Sofia LLWLWW
Cherno More Varna WLLLLD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

CSKA Sofia and Cherno More Varna going into this match

league record before kick-off

CSKA Sofia record

  • They have won 5 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.7 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
  • 53% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Cherno More Varna record

  • They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
  • 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

CSKA Sofia vs Cherno More Varna head-to-head

Last 2 meetings

0CSKA Sofia wins 1Draws 1Cherno More Varna wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2025-12-06Cherno More VarnaCSKA SofiaBulgaria First League2-0
2025-08-09CSKA SofiaCherno More VarnaBulgaria First League0-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

CSKA Sofia vs Cherno More Varna odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 61.6%, draw 23.7%, away 14.8%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.51 3.88 6.51
Bet365 1.50 3.90 6.25
BetVictor 1.50 3.90 6.00
Betano 1.52 3.90 6.30
Betfair 1.44 4.00 6.00
Dafabet 1.50 4.00 6.00
Marathonbet 1.50 3.88 6.45
Pinnacle 1.49 3.97 6.62
SBO 1.44 3.52 5.22
Unibet 1.47 4.20 7.00
William Hill 1.50 3.60 6.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.50 ▲ +0.10
X 3.90 ▼ -0.50
2 6.25 ▼ -1.25

10 snapshots recorded, from .