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Bulgaria First League · Full time ·Matchday 7

Dunav Ruse vs Lokomotiv Sofia

2 – 2 Full time

20′Kaloyan Kostov
39′R. Apostolov
44′Reyan Daskalov
46′K. MiloshevE. Dost
46′K. KostovB. Katsarov
51′Spas Delev
55′Jose Cabarcas
57′G. Minchev
62′D. TodorovD. Minchev
64′A. Valino
69′Caue Caruzo
74′G. MinchevA. Aralica
83′I. KeitaA. Alves
85′Vladan Vidaković
89′S. GavrilovI. Budinov
90′D. KostadinovM. Medfai

Gradski Stadium, RuseReferee: Ventsislav Mitrev, Bulgaria

Dunav Ruse 30%
Draw 28%
Lokomotiv Sofia 42%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Dunav Ruse vs Lokomotiv Sofia overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Dunav Ruse vs Lokomotiv Sofia

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityDunav RuseDrawLokomotiv Sofia
Model38.0%26.2%35.8%
Market27.3%28.2%44.5%
Final30.0%27.7%42.3%
Edge+10.7%-2.0%-8.7%

Confidence: Low

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Dunav Ruse ↓ / Lokomotiv Sofi → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 6% 12% 8% 2 9% 6% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 94%
2+ goals 82%
3+ goals 59%
No goals 6%

Dunav Ruse and Lokomotiv Sofia expected goals

Dunav Ruse 1.56
Lokomotiv Sofia 1.51

Total expected goals: 3.06

Dunav Ruse and Lokomotiv Sofia attack and defence ratings

Dunav Ruse

Attack 0.86 -14%
Defence 1.39 +39%

Lokomotiv Sofia

Attack 1.03 +3%
Defence 1.39 +39%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Dunav Ruse vs Lokomotiv Sofia: result vs prediction

Dunav Ruse 2 – 2 Lokomotiv Sofia

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 7 fixtures

Bulgaria First League

Before and after this match

Dunav Ruse vs Lokomotiv Sofia markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Lokomotiv Sofia 42.3% 2.36 -8.7% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 59.0% 1.69 — —
Both teams to score Yes 62.5% 1.60 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 72.3% 1.38 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 64.2% 1.56 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Dunav Ruse30.0%
Draw27.7%
Lokomotiv Sofia42.3%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.559.0%
Under 2.541.0%
Both teams to scoreYes62.5%
No37.5%
Double chance1X (home or draw)57.7%
12 (either side)72.3%
X2 (draw or away)70.0%
Handicap -1Lokomotiv Sofia win17.6%
Push (exactly one goal)18.1%
Loss64.2%
Correct score (top 3)1-112.1%
2-18.5%
1-28.3%

Dunav Ruse vs Lokomotiv Sofia stats

Dunav Ruse and Lokomotiv Sofia recent form

newest first
Dunav Ruse LWLLLL
Lokomotiv Sofia LLDLDL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Dunav Ruse and Lokomotiv Sofia going into this match

league record before kick-off

Dunav Ruse record

  • They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
  • They average 1.2 goals per game on the road against 0.5 at home.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
  • 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Lokomotiv Sofia record

  • They have won 0 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.

Dunav Ruse vs Lokomotiv Sofia head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Dunav Ruse vs Lokomotiv Sofia odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 27.3%, draw 28.2%, away 44.5%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 3.25 3.35 2.05
1xBet 3.46 3.26 2.09
Bet365 3.50 3.50 2.05
BetVictor 3.40 3.50 2.10
Betano 3.45 3.25 2.07
Betfair 3.25 3.30 2.00
Dafabet 3.45 3.35 2.09
Marathonbet 3.45 3.24 2.08
Pinnacle 3.59 3.30 2.13
SBO 3.00 2.94 2.09
Superbet 3.40 3.25 2.10
Unibet 3.15 3.40 2.20
William Hill 3.25 3.00 2.10

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 3.40 —
X 3.30 ▲ +0.04
2 2.09 ▲ +0.04

12 snapshots recorded, from .