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Bulgaria First League · Full time ·Matchday 7

Arda Kardzhali vs Botev Vratsa

2 – 0 Full time

57′Ivan Goranov
58′M. PetkovD. Genov
59′Martin Smolenski
60′D. Yankov
70′A. KichukovR. Tsonev
70′M. SmolenskiA. Buchkov
71′D. YankovD. Idowu
71′P. BachevG. Nikolov
71′J. GallegosV. Naydenov
75′Preslav Borukov
79′K. HadjiF. Gigov
81′S. IvanovA. Vutov
82′Aleksandar Buchkov
85′A. Vutov
86′S. KovachevM. Paskalev
87′B. KaragarenS. Vasilev

Arena Arda, KardzhaliReferee: Vasil Minev, Bulgaria

Arda Kardzhali 63%
Draw 24%
Botev Vratsa 13%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Arda Kardzhali vs Botev Vratsa overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Arda Kardzhali vs Botev Vratsa

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityArda KardzhaliDrawBotev Vratsa
Model68.1%20.8%11.2%
Market61.8%24.7%13.4%
Final63.4%23.7%12.9%
Edge+6.2%-4.0%-2.3%

Confidence: Low

Why Arda Kardzhali

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.12 vs 0.76.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Arda Kardzhali below the model: +6.2 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Arda Kardzhali ↓ / Botev Vratsa → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 7% 1 11% 10% 2 13% 10% 3 9% 7% 4+ 8%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 93%
2+ goals 79%
3+ goals 55%
No goals 7%

Arda Kardzhali and Botev Vratsa expected goals

Arda Kardzhali 2.12
Botev Vratsa 0.76

Total expected goals: 2.88

Arda Kardzhali and Botev Vratsa attack and defence ratings

Arda Kardzhali

Attack 1.24 +24%
Defence 0.76 -24%

Botev Vratsa

Attack 0.95 -5%
Defence 1.31 +31%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Arda Kardzhali vs Botev Vratsa: result vs prediction

Arda Kardzhali 2 – 0 Botev Vratsa

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 7 fixtures

Bulgaria First League

Before and after this match

Arda Kardzhali vs Botev Vratsa markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Arda Kardzhali 63.4% 1.58 +6.2% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 54.9% 1.82 — —
Both teams to score No 52.4% 1.91 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 87.1% 1.15 — —
Handicap -1 Arda Kardzhali win 44.4% 2.25 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Arda Kardzhali63.4%
Draw23.7%
Botev Vratsa12.9%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.554.9%
Under 2.545.1%
Both teams to scoreYes47.6%
No52.4%
Double chance1X (home or draw)87.1%
12 (either side)76.3%
X2 (draw or away)36.6%
Handicap -1Arda Kardzhali win44.4%
Push (exactly one goal)23.5%
Loss32.0%
Correct score (top 3)2-012.7%
1-011.0%
1-19.9%

Arda Kardzhali vs Botev Vratsa stats

Arda Kardzhali and Botev Vratsa recent form

newest first
Arda Kardzhali WWWLWD
Botev Vratsa WLLLLD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Arda Kardzhali and Botev Vratsa going into this match

league record before kick-off

Arda Kardzhali record

  • They have won 5 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 7 matches.
  • 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Botev Vratsa record

  • They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.

Arda Kardzhali vs Botev Vratsa head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

4Arda Kardzhali wins 2Draws 4Botev Vratsa wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-07-10Botev VratsaArda KardzhaliFriendlies Clubs1-0
2026-03-07Botev VratsaArda KardzhaliBulgaria First League1-0
2026-02-11Botev VratsaArda KardzhaliCup2-3
2025-09-28Arda KardzhaliBotev VratsaBulgaria First League0-2
2025-04-19Botev VratsaArda KardzhaliFirst League3-1
2024-11-08Arda KardzhaliBotev VratsaFirst League2-0
2024-03-10Botev VratsaArda KardzhaliFirst League1-2
2023-09-15Arda KardzhaliBotev VratsaFirst League4-0
2023-04-29Arda KardzhaliBotev VratsaFirst League1-1
2022-10-09Botev VratsaArda KardzhaliFirst League0-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Arda Kardzhali vs Botev Vratsa odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 61.8%, draw 24.7%, away 13.4%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 1.50 3.55 6.40
1xBet 1.50 3.72 7.26
Bet365 1.50 3.75 7.50
BetVictor 1.50 3.80 7.50
Betano 1.52 3.65 6.90
Betfair 1.44 3.75 6.50
Dafabet 1.49 3.85 7.00
Marathonbet 1.49 3.72 7.20
Pinnacle 1.50 3.89 7.44
SBO 1.47 3.40 5.70
Superbet 1.49 3.85 6.50
Unibet 1.54 3.80 6.50
William Hill 1.50 3.50 6.50

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.50 ▲ +0.10
X 3.75 ▼ -0.35
2 6.90 ▼ -1.10

13 snapshots recorded, from .