Lokomotiv Plovdiv
vs
Arda Kardzhali
0 – 1 Full time
Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Arda Kardzhali overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Arda Kardzhali
| Probability | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | Draw | Arda Kardzhali |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 17.8% | 29.0% | 53.2% |
| Market | 27.7% | 31.0% | 41.3% |
| Final | 25.2% | 30.5% | 44.3% |
| Edge | -9.8% | -2.0% | +11.8% |
Why Arda Kardzhali
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.47 vs 0.75.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Arda Kardzhali below the model: +11.8 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv and Arda Kardzhali expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.22
Lokomotiv Plovdiv and Arda Kardzhali attack and defence ratings
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Arda Kardzhali
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Arda Kardzhali: result vs prediction
Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0 – 1 Arda Kardzhali
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
Before and after this match
Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Arda Kardzhali markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Arda Kardzhali | 44.3% | 2.26 | +11.8% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 61.8% | 1.62 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 58.3% | 1.72 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 74.8% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 46.9% | 2.13 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 25.2% |
| Draw | 30.5% | |
| Arda Kardzhali | 44.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 38.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 61.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 41.7% |
| No | 58.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 55.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 74.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Arda Kardzhali win | 27.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.4% | |
| Loss | 46.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-1 | 14.8% |
| 1-1 | 13.2% | |
| 0-0 | 12.1% |
Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Arda Kardzhali stats
Lokomotiv Plovdiv and Arda Kardzhali recent form
| Lokomotiv Plovdiv |
LLLWLD |
| Arda Kardzhali |
WWLWDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv and Arda Kardzhali going into this match
Lokomotiv Plovdiv record
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.0 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 8 matches.
Arda Kardzhali record
- They have won 5 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Arda Kardzhali head-to-head
Last 9 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | Arda Kardzhali | Friendlies Clubs | 2-0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Arda Kardzhali | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | Bulgaria First League | 4-0 |
| 2026-05-08 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | Arda Kardzhali | Bulgaria First League | 2-0 |
| 2026-04-30 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | Arda Kardzhali | Cup | 1-1 |
| 2026-04-22 | Arda Kardzhali | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | Cup | 0-4 |
| 2025-12-06 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | Arda Kardzhali | Bulgaria First League | 0-2 |
| 2025-08-11 | Arda Kardzhali | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | Bulgaria First League | 0-0 |
| 2025-07-05 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | Arda Kardzhali | Friendlies Clubs | 2-2 |
| 2024-11-23 | Arda Kardzhali | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | First League | 4-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Arda Kardzhali odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 27.7%, draw 31.0%, away 41.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 3.30 | 2.95 | 2.20 |
| 1xBet | 3.42 | 2.99 | 2.24 |
| 888Sport | 3.25 | 2.80 | 2.25 |
| Bet365 | 3.50 | 3.00 | 2.25 |
| BetVictor | 3.40 | 3.00 | 2.30 |
| Betano | 3.25 | 3.15 | 2.20 |
| Betfair | 3.30 | 3.00 | 2.15 |
| Dafabet | 3.40 | 3.00 | 2.27 |
| Marathonbet | 3.40 | 2.99 | 2.22 |
| Pinnacle | 3.51 | 3.03 | 2.30 |
| SBO | 2.97 | 2.80 | 2.18 |
| Superbet | 3.30 | 2.95 | 2.27 |
| Unibet | 3.60 | 3.05 | 2.07 |
| William Hill | 3.25 | 2.80 | 2.25 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
6 snapshots recorded, from .