Botev Vratsa
vs
Botev Plovdiv
1 – 0 Full time
Botev Vratsa vs Botev Plovdiv overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Botev Vratsa vs Botev Plovdiv
| Probability | Botev Vratsa | Draw | Botev Plovdiv |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 26.2% | 24.2% | 49.5% |
| Market | 25.8% | 29.0% | 45.2% |
| Final | 25.9% | 27.8% | 46.3% |
| Edge | +0.4% | -4.7% | +4.3% |
Why Botev Plovdiv
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.91 vs 1.35.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Botev Plovdiv below the model: +4.3 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Botev Vratsa and Botev Plovdiv expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.27
Botev Vratsa and Botev Plovdiv attack and defence ratings
Botev Vratsa
Botev Plovdiv
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Botev Vratsa vs Botev Plovdiv: result vs prediction
Botev Vratsa 1 – 0 Botev Plovdiv
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
Before and after this match
Botev Vratsa vs Botev Plovdiv markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Botev Plovdiv | 46.3% | 2.16 | +4.3% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.4% | 1.58 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.2% | 1.56 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 74.1% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 50.5% | 1.98 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Botev Vratsa | 25.9% |
| Draw | 27.8% | |
| Botev Plovdiv | 46.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 36.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.2% |
| No | 35.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 53.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 74.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Botev Plovdiv win | 28.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.8% | |
| Loss | 50.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.9% |
| 1-2 | 9.4% | |
| 0-2 | 7.0% |
Botev Vratsa vs Botev Plovdiv stats
Botev Vratsa and Botev Plovdiv recent form
| Botev Vratsa |
LLLLDW |
| Botev Plovdiv |
LWWLDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Botev Vratsa and Botev Plovdiv going into this match
Botev Vratsa record
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
Botev Plovdiv record
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- 53% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Botev Vratsa vs Botev Plovdiv head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | Botev Plovdiv | Botev Vratsa | Bulgaria First League | 1-3 |
| 2025-10-05 | Botev Vratsa | Botev Plovdiv | Bulgaria First League | 1-2 |
| 2024-11-23 | Botev Plovdiv | Botev Vratsa | First League | 3-1 |
| 2024-07-21 | Botev Vratsa | Botev Plovdiv | First League | 1-3 |
| 2024-04-12 | Botev Plovdiv | Botev Vratsa | First League | 2-0 |
| 2023-10-21 | Botev Vratsa | Botev Plovdiv | First League | 3-5 |
| 2023-02-04 | Botev Plovdiv | Botev Vratsa | Friendlies Clubs | 0-0 |
| 2022-11-05 | Botev Plovdiv | Botev Vratsa | First League | 6-0 |
| 2022-07-15 | Botev Vratsa | Botev Plovdiv | First League | 3-2 |
| 2021-11-30 | Botev Plovdiv | Botev Vratsa | First League | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Botev Vratsa vs Botev Plovdiv odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 25.8%, draw 29.0%, away 45.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 3.35 | 3.20 | 2.05 |
| 1xBet | 3.65 | 3.14 | 2.08 |
| 888Sport | 3.50 | 2.90 | 2.05 |
| Bet365 | 3.60 | 3.50 | 2.00 |
| BetVictor | 3.60 | 3.25 | 2.10 |
| Betano | 3.60 | 3.25 | 2.02 |
| Betfair | 3.30 | 3.25 | 2.00 |
| Dafabet | 3.60 | 3.30 | 2.05 |
| Marathonbet | 3.82 | 3.20 | 1.98 |
| Pinnacle | 3.76 | 3.20 | 2.12 |
| SBO | 3.23 | 3.00 | 1.98 |
| Superbet | 3.60 | 3.25 | 2.02 |
| Unibet | 3.25 | 3.20 | 2.14 |
| William Hill | 3.50 | 2.90 | 2.05 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
6 snapshots recorded, from .