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Bulgaria First League · Full time ·Matchday 7

Botev Plovdiv vs Levski Sofia

1 – 3 Full time

5′Bryan-Anthony Chibuike Hein
46′S. TsonovMascote
46′S. HeverttonA. Neves
46′S. StoyanchovReinaldo
51′M. Grujic
54′Daniel Naumov
59′A. Neves
64′A. Chandarov
65′C. MeottiG. Milanov
69′El Mehdi Moubarik
75′M. RodriguesW. Chimezie
75′M. GrujicA. Mitkov
75′M. SoulaEverton Bala
86′Lucas Araujo
86′A. Oko-FlexG. Trdin
88′Lucas AraujoO. M. Chidera
90′Svetoslav Vutsov
90′Reinaldo

Stadion Hristo Botev, PlovdivReferee: Todor Nedyalkov Kirov, Bulgaria

Botev Plovdiv 20%
Draw 26%
Levski Sofia 54%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Botev Plovdiv vs Levski Sofia overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Botev Plovdiv vs Levski Sofia

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityBotev PlovdivDrawLevski Sofia
Model24.4%26.8%48.8%
Market18.9%25.4%55.7%
Final20.3%25.7%54.0%
Edge+5.5%+1.4%-6.9%

Confidence: Low

Why Levski Sofia

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.64 vs 1.11.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Botev Plovdiv ↓ / Levski Sofia → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 8% 9% 9% 1 13% 10% 2 6% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 92%
2+ goals 77%
3+ goals 52%
No goals 8%

Botev Plovdiv and Levski Sofia expected goals

Botev Plovdiv 1.11
Levski Sofia 1.64

Total expected goals: 2.75

Botev Plovdiv and Levski Sofia attack and defence ratings

Botev Plovdiv

Attack 1.16 +16%
Defence 1.11 +11%

Levski Sofia

Attack 1.42 +42%
Defence 0.74 -26%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Botev Plovdiv vs Levski Sofia: result vs prediction

Botev Plovdiv 1 – 3 Levski Sofia

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 7 fixtures

Bulgaria First League

Before and after this match

Botev Plovdiv vs Levski Sofia markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Levski Sofia 54.0% 1.85 -6.9% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 51.9% 1.93 — —
Both teams to score Yes 55.1% 1.81 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 79.7% 1.25 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 51.3% 1.95 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Botev Plovdiv20.3%
Draw25.7%
Levski Sofia54.0%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.551.9%
Under 2.548.1%
Both teams to scoreYes55.1%
No44.9%
Double chance1X (home or draw)46.0%
12 (either side)74.3%
X2 (draw or away)79.7%
Handicap -1Levski Sofia win26.4%
Push (exactly one goal)22.3%
Loss51.3%
Correct score (top 3)1-112.8%
1-29.6%
0-19.4%

Botev Plovdiv vs Levski Sofia stats

Botev Plovdiv and Levski Sofia recent form

newest first
Botev Plovdiv LLWWLD
Levski Sofia LWDWWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Botev Plovdiv and Levski Sofia going into this match

league record before kick-off

Botev Plovdiv record

  • They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • 53% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Levski Sofia record

  • They have won 8 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 8 matches.

Botev Plovdiv vs Levski Sofia head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

1Botev Plovdiv wins 2Draws 7Levski Sofia wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-02-15Levski SofiaBotev PlovdivBulgaria First League3-0
2025-09-30Botev PlovdivLevski SofiaBulgaria First League0-1
2025-03-30Levski SofiaBotev PlovdivFirst League1-1
2024-10-05Botev PlovdivLevski SofiaFirst League1-0
2023-11-12Levski SofiaBotev PlovdivFirst League1-1
2023-07-22Botev PlovdivLevski SofiaFirst League1-3
2023-04-29Botev PlovdivLevski SofiaFirst League0-1
2022-10-08Levski SofiaBotev PlovdivFirst League1-0
2022-04-30Levski SofiaBotev PlovdivFirst League2-0
2021-12-04Levski SofiaBotev PlovdivFirst League2-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Botev Plovdiv vs Levski Sofia odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 18.9%, draw 25.4%, away 55.7%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 4.86 3.62 1.69
Bet365 5.00 3.70 1.62
BetVictor 4.80 3.60 1.65
Betfair 4.60 3.60 1.65
Dafabet 5.00 3.65 1.65
Marathonbet 4.90 3.62 1.67
Pinnacle 5.18 3.67 1.65
Unibet 4.70 3.65 1.72
William Hill 4.75 3.30 1.67

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 4.86 ▲ +0.90
X 3.62 ▲ +0.17
2 1.65 ▼ -0.25

11 snapshots recorded, from .