AEK Athens FC
vs
Levski Sofia
4 – 0 Full time
AEK Athens FC vs Levski Sofia overview
Garuda Lions analysis: AEK Athens FC vs Levski Sofia
| Probability | AEK Athens FC | Draw | Levski Sofia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 28.2% | 37.1% | 34.8% |
| Market | 64.5% | 22.4% | 13.2% |
| Final | 55.4% | 26.1% | 18.6% |
| Edge | -36.3% | +14.7% | +21.6% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
AEK Athens FC and Levski Sofia expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.66
AEK Athens FC and Levski Sofia attack and defence ratings
AEK Athens FC
Levski Sofia
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
AEK Athens FC vs Levski Sofia: result vs prediction
AEK Athens FC 4 – 0 Levski Sofia
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Play-offs fixtures
Before and after this match
AEK Athens FC vs Levski Sofia markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AEK Athens FC | 55.4% | 1.81 | -36.3% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 76.8% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 67.0% | 1.49 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.4% | 1.23 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 71.8% | 1.39 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AEK Athens FC | 55.4% |
| Draw | 26.1% | |
| Levski Sofia | 18.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 23.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 76.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 33.0% |
| No | 67.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 44.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | AEK Athens FC win | 9.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.0% | |
| Loss | 71.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 20.3% |
| 0-1 | 15.6% | |
| 1-1 | 14.3% |
AEK Athens FC vs Levski Sofia stats
AEK Athens FC and Levski Sofia recent form
| AEK Athens FC |
WDDDWD |
| Levski Sofia |
WDWWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
AEK Athens FC and Levski Sofia going into this match
Levski Sofia record
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
AEK Athens FC vs Levski Sofia head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | Levski Sofia | AEK Athens FC | UEFA Champions League | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
AEK Athens FC vs Levski Sofia odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 64.5%, draw 22.4%, away 13.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.50 | 3.85 | 7.10 |
| 1xBet | 1.52 | 4.34 | 7.41 |
| 888Sport | 1.44 | 3.90 | 6.50 |
| Bet365 | 1.40 | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.45 | 4.20 | 8.00 |
| Betano | 1.53 | 4.30 | 7.30 |
| Betfair | 1.44 | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.48 | 4.40 | 7.40 |
| Marathonbet | 1.45 | 4.15 | 7.10 |
| Pinnacle | 1.49 | 4.27 | 7.31 |
| SBO | 1.44 | 3.86 | 6.57 |
| Superbet | 1.50 | 4.20 | 6.70 |
| Unibet | 1.44 | 4.30 | 7.50 |
| William Hill | 1.44 | 3.90 | 6.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .