Spartak Varna
vs
Ludogorets
1 – 1 Full time
| 36′ | Boris Ivanov | ||
| 57′ | Jota LopesA. Gomes | ||
| 57′ | Caio VidalA. Marinov | ||
| 59′ | David Valverde Juan | ||
| 65′ | S. Major | ||
| 68′ | S. Shishkov | ||
| 78′ | A. CamaraSon | ||
| 78′ | J. AnderssonErick Marcus | ||
| 82′ | A. AhmedovT. Chunchukov | ||
| 82′ | D. ValverdeD. Lozev | ||
| 82′ | S. MajorT. Marinov | ||
| 84′ | K. DuahE. Bile | ||
| 85′ | Deroy Duarte | ||
| 86′ | Tsvetoslav Marinov | ||
| 88′ | Tsvetelin Chunchukov | ||
| 90′ | A. IvanovG. Trifonov |
Spartak Varna vs Ludogorets overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Spartak Varna vs Ludogorets
| Probability | Spartak Varna | Draw | Ludogorets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 26.9% | 28.0% | 45.1% |
| Market | 15.9% | 22.7% | 61.4% |
| Final | 18.6% | 24.0% | 57.3% |
| Edge | +11.1% | +5.2% | -16.3% |
Why Ludogorets
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.52 vs 1.13.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Spartak Varna and Ludogorets expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.64
Spartak Varna and Ludogorets attack and defence ratings
Spartak Varna
Ludogorets
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Spartak Varna vs Ludogorets: result vs prediction
Spartak Varna 1 – 1 Ludogorets
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
Before and after this match
Spartak Varna vs Ludogorets markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ludogorets | 57.3% | 1.74 | -16.3% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 50.8% | 1.97 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.9% | 1.85 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 81.4% | 1.23 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 55.0% | 1.82 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Spartak Varna | 18.6% |
| Draw | 24.0% | |
| Ludogorets | 57.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 50.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.9% |
| No | 46.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 42.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 81.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Ludogorets win | 23.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.8% | |
| Loss | 55.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.4% |
| 0-1 | 9.6% | |
| 1-2 | 9.2% |
Spartak Varna vs Ludogorets stats
Spartak Varna and Ludogorets recent form
| Spartak Varna |
LLLWWD |
| Ludogorets |
DWWWDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Spartak Varna and Ludogorets going into this match
Spartak Varna record
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Ludogorets record
- They have won 6 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.5 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- 53% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Spartak Varna vs Ludogorets head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-19 | Spartak Varna | Ludogorets | Bulgaria First League | 1-5 |
| 2025-10-18 | Ludogorets | Spartak Varna | Bulgaria First League | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Spartak Varna vs Ludogorets odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 15.9%, draw 22.7%, away 61.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 6.25 | 4.05 | 1.50 |
| Bet365 | 5.75 | 4.00 | 1.50 |
| BetVictor | 5.75 | 4.00 | 1.50 |
| Betano | 5.80 | 4.10 | 1.53 |
| Betfair | 6.50 | 4.00 | 1.40 |
| Dafabet | 5.60 | 4.20 | 1.51 |
| Marathonbet | 6.20 | 4.05 | 1.49 |
| Pinnacle | 5.80 | 4.11 | 1.52 |
| SBO | 4.94 | 3.63 | 1.45 |
| Unibet | 6.40 | 4.10 | 1.45 |
| William Hill | 5.80 | 3.75 | 1.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .