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Bulgaria First League · Full time ·Matchday 8

Lokomotiv Sofia vs Ludogorets

1 – 2 Full time

4′I. Chochev
19′Aleksandar Marinov
29′Caue Caruzo
33′Erol Dost
46′P. StanicA. Camara
53′A. MarinovCaio Vidal
55′Krasimir Stanoev
57′Angel Lyaskov
61′Georgi Minchev
62′B. TekpeteyErick Marcus
76′I. Chochev
80′I. ChochevF. Kaloc
81′EiroR. Daskalov
81′E. DostK. Miloshev
81′Caue CaruzoM. Papazov
81′G. MinchevA. Aralica
81′Rwan CruzK. Duah
82′S. DelevN. Penev
88′Hossam Abdelmaguid
90′Hendrik Bonmann

Stadion Lokomotiv, SofiaReferee: Georgi Dimitrov, Bulgaria

Lokomotiv Sofia 18%
Draw 24%
Ludogorets 58%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Lokomotiv Sofia vs Ludogorets overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Lokomotiv Sofia vs Ludogorets

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityLokomotiv SofiaDrawLudogorets
Model26.1%26.8%47.1%
Market15.2%22.6%62.2%
Final17.9%23.7%58.4%
Edge+10.8%+4.2%-15.0%

Confidence: Low

Why Ludogorets

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.63 vs 1.17.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Lokomotiv Sofi ↓ / Ludogorets → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 7% 9% 8% 1 13% 9% 2 7% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 93%
2+ goals 78%
3+ goals 53%
No goals 7%

Lokomotiv Sofia and Ludogorets expected goals

Lokomotiv Sofia 1.17
Ludogorets 1.63

Total expected goals: 2.80

Lokomotiv Sofia and Ludogorets attack and defence ratings

Lokomotiv Sofia

Attack 1.11 +11%
Defence 1.41 +41%

Ludogorets

Attack 1.10 +10%
Defence 0.81 -19%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Lokomotiv Sofia vs Ludogorets: result vs prediction

Lokomotiv Sofia 1 – 2 Ludogorets

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 8 fixtures

Bulgaria First League

Before and after this match

Lokomotiv Sofia vs Ludogorets markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Ludogorets 58.4% 1.71 -15.0% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 53.1% 1.88 — —
Both teams to score Yes 56.6% 1.77 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 82.1% 1.22 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 52.9% 1.89 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Lokomotiv Sofia17.9%
Draw23.7%
Ludogorets58.4%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.553.1%
Under 2.546.9%
Both teams to scoreYes56.6%
No43.4%
Double chance1X (home or draw)41.6%
12 (either side)76.3%
X2 (draw or away)82.1%
Handicap -1Ludogorets win25.3%
Push (exactly one goal)21.8%
Loss52.9%
Correct score (top 3)1-112.7%
1-29.5%
0-18.8%

Lokomotiv Sofia vs Ludogorets stats

Lokomotiv Sofia and Ludogorets recent form

newest first
Lokomotiv Sofia DLLDLD
Ludogorets DDWWWD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Lokomotiv Sofia and Ludogorets going into this match

league record before kick-off

Lokomotiv Sofia record

  • They have won 0 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.

Ludogorets record

  • They have won 6 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.5 at home.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
  • 53% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Lokomotiv Sofia vs Ludogorets head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

1Lokomotiv Sofia wins 1Draws 8Ludogorets wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-02-07Lokomotiv SofiaLudogoretsBulgaria First League1-3
2025-08-17LudogoretsLokomotiv SofiaBulgaria First League0-0
2025-03-09Lokomotiv SofiaLudogoretsFirst League1-2
2024-09-21LudogoretsLokomotiv SofiaFirst League2-0
2024-03-16LudogoretsLokomotiv SofiaFirst League6-0
2023-09-24Lokomotiv SofiaLudogoretsFirst League1-3
2023-04-21LudogoretsLokomotiv SofiaFirst League1-0
2022-10-01Lokomotiv SofiaLudogoretsFirst League1-0
2021-12-05Lokomotiv SofiaLudogoretsFirst League2-4
2021-08-21LudogoretsLokomotiv SofiaFirst League5-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Lokomotiv Sofia vs Ludogorets odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 16.0%, draw 22.7%, away 61.3%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 6.25 4.05 1.50
Bet365 6.00 4.20 1.50
BetVictor 6.50 4.20 1.50
Betano 5.20 4.00 1.57
Betfair 5.00 3.90 1.50
Dafabet 5.40 4.10 1.54
Marathonbet 6.20 4.05 1.49
Pinnacle 6.06 4.23 1.53
SBO 4.84 3.54 1.47
Superbet 5.25 4.00 1.55
Unibet 6.00 4.10 1.53
William Hill 5.50 3.80 1.50

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 6.13 ▲ +0.13
X 4.12 ▼ -0.08
2 1.50 —

25 snapshots recorded, from .