Bulgaria First League
·
Full time
·Matchday 9
Ludogorets
vs
Septemvri Sofia
2 – 1 Full time
| 14′ | Sebastian WadeValentine Ozornwafor | ||
| 21′ | Ivajlo Čočev | ||
| 50′ | Kubrat Onasci | ||
| 56′ | Son | ||
| 58′ | Bozidar Krasimirov Penchev | ||
| 58′ | Caio Vidal RochaErick Marcus dos Santos Oliveira do Carmo | ||
| 59′ | Aguibou Camara | ||
| 62′ | Galin Ivanov | ||
| 68′ | Ivajlo ČočevFilip Kaloc | ||
| 68′ | SonJoel Andersson | ||
| 68′ | Bernard Tekpeteyaleksandar marinov | ||
| 76′ | edney ribeiroAndre Liberal | ||
| 81′ | Frantzety Herard | ||
| 87′ | Yoan BaurenskiStoyan Stoichkov | ||
| 88′ | aleksandar marinovEdvin Kurtulus |
Ludogorets
71%
Draw
19%
Septemvri Sofia
10%
Match stats
| 14 | Shots | 6 |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Shots on target | 2 |
| 47 | Possession % | 53 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
Ludogorets vs Septemvri Sofia overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Ludogorets vs Septemvri Sofia
| Probability | Ludogorets | Draw | Septemvri Sofia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 59.2% | 25.5% | 15.3% |
| Market | 75.3% | 16.4% | 8.3% |
| Final | 71.2% | 18.7% | 10.1% |
| Edge | -16.1% | +9.1% | +6.9% |
Why Ludogorets
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.73 vs 0.77.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
91%
2+ goals
73%
3+ goals
46%
No goals
9%
Ludogorets and Septemvri Sofia expected goals
Ludogorets
1.73
Septemvri Sofia
0.77
Total expected goals: 2.51
Ludogorets and Septemvri Sofia attack and defence ratings
Ludogorets
Attack
1.17 +17%
Defence
0.82 -18%
Septemvri Sofia
Attack
0.90 -10%
Defence
1.13 +13%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Ludogorets vs Septemvri Sofia: result vs prediction
Ludogorets 2 – 1 Septemvri Sofia
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Ludogorets vs Septemvri Sofia markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ludogorets | 71.2% | 1.40 | -16.1% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 54.2% | 1.84 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 54.6% | 1.83 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 89.9% | 1.11 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 40.8% | 2.45 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ludogorets | 71.2% |
| Draw | 18.7% | |
| Septemvri Sofia | 10.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 45.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 54.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45.4% |
| No | 54.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 89.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 81.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 28.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Ludogorets win | 34.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.9% | |
| Loss | 40.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 13.0% |
| 2-0 | 12.2% | |
| 1-1 | 12.0% |
Ludogorets vs Septemvri Sofia stats
Ludogorets and Septemvri Sofia recent form
| Ludogorets |
WDDWWW |
| Septemvri Sofia |
LDWWLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Ludogorets and Septemvri Sofia going into this match
Ludogorets record
- They have won 6 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.5 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- 53% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Septemvri Sofia record
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
Ludogorets vs Septemvri Sofia head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
9Ludogorets wins
1Draws
0Septemvri Sofia wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | Ludogorets | Septemvri Sofia | Friendlies Clubs | 1-0 |
| 2025-12-15 | Septemvri Sofia | Ludogorets | Cup | 1-3 |
| 2025-11-23 | Septemvri Sofia | Ludogorets | Bulgaria First League | 0-2 |
| 2025-07-19 | Ludogorets | Septemvri Sofia | Bulgaria First League | 5-0 |
| 2025-03-03 | Ludogorets | Septemvri Sofia | First League | 0-0 |
| 2024-10-20 | Septemvri Sofia | Ludogorets | First League | 0-2 |
| 2022-10-30 | Ludogorets | Septemvri Sofia | First League | 3-1 |
| 2022-07-08 | Septemvri Sofia | Ludogorets | First League | 0-3 |
| 2019-12-04 | Septemvri Sofia | Ludogorets | Cup | 0-3 |
| 2019-03-16 | Ludogorets | Septemvri Sofia | First League | 6-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Ludogorets vs Septemvri Sofia odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 75.3%, draw 16.4%, away 8.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.23 | 5.60 | 12.10 |
| Bet365 | 1.22 | 6.00 | 11.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.20 | 6.50 | 13.00 |
| Betano | 1.25 | 5.50 | 10.25 |
| Betfair | 1.18 | 5.50 | 12.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.22 | 5.60 | 12.25 |
| Pinnacle | 1.25 | 5.86 | 10.91 |
| SBO | 1.17 | 5.22 | 8.68 |
| William Hill | 1.22 | 5.00 | 11.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
1.22 —
X
5.60 ▼ -0.18
2
11.00 ▼ -0.02
14 snapshots recorded, from .