Garuda Lions
Today
Bulgaria First League · Full time ·Matchday 8

Septemvri Sofia vs Botev Vratsa

2 – 3 Full time

25′Valentine Ozornwafor
28′Ivan Goranov
41′M. Smolenski
53′Pedro Igor
63′P. BorukovA. Kichukov
73′G. Ivanov
78′R. TsonevA. Stoyanov
78′M. SmolenskiF. Gigov
79′G. IvanovS. Stoichkov
80′Yoan Baurenski
84′Pedro IgorA. Dzhamov
84′V. NaydenovD. Genov
84′K. HadjiA. Buchkov
86′F. Gigov
88′F. Gigov
90′K. OnasciA. Liberal

Stadion Lokomotiv, SofiaReferee: Stanimir Trenchev, Bulgaria

Septemvri Sofia 39%
Draw 31%
Botev Vratsa 30%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Septemvri Sofia vs Botev Vratsa overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Septemvri Sofia vs Botev Vratsa

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilitySeptemvri SofiaDrawBotev Vratsa
Model47.9%29.4%22.7%
Market35.8%31.9%32.3%
Final38.8%31.3%29.9%
Edge+12.1%-2.5%-9.6%

Confidence: Low

Why Septemvri Sofia

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.43 vs 0.91.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Septemvri Sofia below the model: +12.1 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Septemvri Sofi ↓ / Botev Vratsa → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 11% 8% 1 13% 14% 2 10% 9% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 89%
2+ goals 69%
3+ goals 41%
No goals 11%

Septemvri Sofia and Botev Vratsa expected goals

Septemvri Sofia 1.43
Botev Vratsa 0.91

Total expected goals: 2.34

Septemvri Sofia and Botev Vratsa attack and defence ratings

Septemvri Sofia

Attack 0.81 -19%
Defence 0.98 -2%

Botev Vratsa

Attack 0.88 -12%
Defence 1.34 +34%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Septemvri Sofia vs Botev Vratsa: result vs prediction

Septemvri Sofia 2 – 3 Botev Vratsa

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 8 fixtures

Bulgaria First League

Before and after this match

Septemvri Sofia vs Botev Vratsa markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Septemvri Sofia 38.8% 2.58 +12.1% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 58.7% 1.70 — —
Both teams to score No 53.4% 1.87 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 70.1% 1.43 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 52.1% 1.92 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Septemvri Sofia38.8%
Draw31.3%
Botev Vratsa29.9%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.541.3%
Under 2.558.7%
Both teams to scoreYes46.6%
No53.4%
Double chance1X (home or draw)70.1%
12 (either side)68.7%
X2 (draw or away)61.2%
Handicap -1Septemvri Sofia win24.2%
Push (exactly one goal)23.7%
Loss52.1%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.8%
1-012.6%
0-010.9%

Septemvri Sofia vs Botev Vratsa stats

Septemvri Sofia and Botev Vratsa recent form

newest first
Septemvri Sofia DWWLLL
Botev Vratsa LWLLLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Septemvri Sofia and Botev Vratsa going into this match

league record before kick-off

Septemvri Sofia record

  • They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.

Botev Vratsa record

  • They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.

Septemvri Sofia vs Botev Vratsa head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

1Septemvri Sofia wins 6Draws 3Botev Vratsa wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-05-10Botev VratsaSeptemvri SofiaBulgaria First League1-1
2026-04-06Septemvri SofiaBotev VratsaBulgaria First League0-0
2025-10-25Botev VratsaSeptemvri SofiaBulgaria First League2-1
2025-05-02Botev VratsaSeptemvri SofiaFirst League3-2
2025-02-08Septemvri SofiaBotev VratsaFirst League2-2
2024-08-19Botev VratsaSeptemvri SofiaFirst League2-0
2023-11-01Septemvri SofiaBotev VratsaCup5-5
2023-06-05Septemvri SofiaBotev VratsaFirst League3-1
2022-11-14Botev VratsaSeptemvri SofiaFirst League0-0
2022-07-25Septemvri SofiaBotev VratsaFirst League1-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Septemvri Sofia vs Botev Vratsa odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 35.8%, draw 31.9%, away 32.3%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 2.50 2.90 2.80
1xBet 2.66 2.79 2.90
Bet365 2.55 3.20 2.80
BetVictor 2.60 3.10 2.88
Betano 2.65 2.85 2.85
Betfair 2.50 2.88 2.80
Dafabet 2.60 3.00 2.85
Marathonbet 2.65 2.79 2.91
Pinnacle 2.75 2.78 3.07
SBO 2.37 2.80 2.54
Superbet 2.57 2.92 2.85
Unibet 2.55 3.15 2.75
William Hill 2.50 2.80 2.75

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.57 ▲ +0.27
X 2.88 ▼ -0.17
2 2.85 ▼ -0.10

20 snapshots recorded, from .