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Bulgaria First League · Full time ·Matchday 8

Spartak Varna vs CSKA Sofia

1 – 1 Full time

18′I. Pittas
33′B. Hanne
36′Ángelo Martino
46′F. RodriguezJ. Gbamin
51′Anton Ivanov
57′M. EbongC. Itu
58′R. SousaT. Marinov
58′Jota LopesA. Gomes
65′Plamen Iliev
70′D. ValverdeD. Lozev
70′J. Eto'oI. Solet
77′Pastor
77′A. IvanovBua
77′A. AhmedovT. Chunchukov
81′B. JordaoLeo Pereira
90′Jean-Philippe Gbamin

Stadion Spartak, VarnaReferee: Radoslav Gidzhenov, Bulgaria

Spartak Varna 19%
Draw 24%
CSKA Sofia 57%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Spartak Varna vs CSKA Sofia overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Spartak Varna vs CSKA Sofia

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilitySpartak VarnaDrawCSKA Sofia
Model27.4%24.9%47.7%
Market16.2%23.3%60.5%
Final19.0%23.7%57.3%
Edge+11.3%+1.5%-12.8%

Confidence: Low

Why CSKA Sofia

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.83 vs 1.35.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Spartak Varna ↓ / CSKA Sofia → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 7% 7% 1 11% 9% 6% 2 7% 6% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 95%
2+ goals 84%
3+ goals 62%
No goals 5%

Spartak Varna and CSKA Sofia expected goals

Spartak Varna 1.35
CSKA Sofia 1.83

Total expected goals: 3.18

Spartak Varna and CSKA Sofia attack and defence ratings

Spartak Varna

Attack 1.03 +3%
Defence 1.25 +25%

CSKA Sofia

Attack 1.37 +37%
Defence 1.00 +0%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Spartak Varna vs CSKA Sofia: result vs prediction

Spartak Varna 1 – 1 CSKA Sofia

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 8 fixtures

Bulgaria First League

Before and after this match

Spartak Varna vs CSKA Sofia markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 CSKA Sofia 57.3% 1.75 -12.8% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 61.6% 1.62 — —
Both teams to score Yes 63.3% 1.58 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 81.0% 1.23 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 52.3% 1.91 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Spartak Varna19.0%
Draw23.7%
CSKA Sofia57.3%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.561.6%
Under 2.538.4%
Both teams to scoreYes63.3%
No36.7%
Double chance1X (home or draw)42.7%
12 (either side)76.3%
X2 (draw or away)81.0%
Handicap -1CSKA Sofia win26.9%
Push (exactly one goal)20.7%
Loss52.3%
Correct score (top 3)1-111.3%
1-29.4%
2-16.9%

Spartak Varna vs CSKA Sofia stats

Spartak Varna and CSKA Sofia recent form

newest first
Spartak Varna DLLLWW
CSKA Sofia WLLWLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Spartak Varna and CSKA Sofia going into this match

league record before kick-off

Spartak Varna record

  • They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They average 1.7 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
  • 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

CSKA Sofia record

  • They have won 5 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.7 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
  • 53% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Spartak Varna vs CSKA Sofia head-to-head

Last 9 meetings

1Spartak Varna wins 1Draws 7CSKA Sofia wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2025-11-29Spartak VarnaCSKA SofiaBulgaria First League0-4
2025-07-26CSKA SofiaSpartak VarnaBulgaria First League1-1
2025-05-13CSKA SofiaSpartak VarnaFirst League5-0
2025-04-26Spartak VarnaCSKA SofiaFirst League0-1
2024-12-15Spartak VarnaCSKA SofiaCup2-3
2024-12-03CSKA SofiaSpartak VarnaFirst League3-1
2024-08-03Spartak VarnaCSKA SofiaFirst League3-0
2023-03-18CSKA SofiaSpartak VarnaFirst League1-0
2022-09-03Spartak VarnaCSKA SofiaFirst League0-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Spartak Varna vs CSKA Sofia odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 16.5%, draw 23.3%, away 60.3%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 5.66 3.98 1.55
Bet365 5.75 4.00 1.53
BetVictor 6.00 4.10 1.53
Betano 5.30 3.80 1.60
Betfair 5.50 4.00 1.50
Dafabet 5.60 4.00 1.56
Marathonbet 5.75 3.98 1.53
Pinnacle 5.84 4.07 1.56
SBO 4.62 3.47 1.51
Superbet 5.30 3.90 1.56
Unibet 6.40 4.10 1.50
William Hill 5.00 3.70 1.55

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 5.75 ▼ -1.25
X 3.99 ▼ -0.28
2 1.54 ▲ +0.14

22 snapshots recorded, from .