Septemvri Sofia
vs
CSKA 1948
1 – 0 Full time
Septemvri Sofia vs CSKA 1948 overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Septemvri Sofia vs CSKA 1948
| Probability | Septemvri Sofia | Draw | CSKA 1948 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 22.2% | 29.7% | 48.1% |
| Market | 16.6% | 24.2% | 59.2% |
| Final | 18.0% | 25.6% | 56.5% |
| Edge | +5.6% | +5.5% | -11.1% |
Why CSKA 1948
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.41 vs 0.88.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Septemvri Sofia and CSKA 1948 expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.29
Septemvri Sofia and CSKA 1948 attack and defence ratings
Septemvri Sofia
CSKA 1948
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Septemvri Sofia vs CSKA 1948: result vs prediction
Septemvri Sofia 1 – 0 CSKA 1948
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
Before and after this match
Septemvri Sofia vs CSKA 1948 markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | CSKA 1948 | 56.5% | 1.77 | -11.1% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 59.9% | 1.67 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 54.6% | 1.83 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 82.0% | 1.22 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 51.9% | 1.93 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Septemvri Sofia | 18.0% |
| Draw | 25.6% | |
| CSKA 1948 | 56.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 40.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 59.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45.4% |
| No | 54.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 43.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 82.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | CSKA 1948 win | 24.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.9% | |
| Loss | 51.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.8% |
| 0-1 | 13.1% | |
| 0-0 | 11.4% |
Septemvri Sofia vs CSKA 1948 stats
Septemvri Sofia and CSKA 1948 recent form
| Septemvri Sofia |
WLLLDW |
| CSKA 1948 |
WLWDWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Septemvri Sofia and CSKA 1948 going into this match
Septemvri Sofia record
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
CSKA 1948 record
- They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Septemvri Sofia vs CSKA 1948 head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-03 | Septemvri Sofia | CSKA 1948 | Bulgaria First League | 1-4 |
| 2025-08-01 | CSKA 1948 | Septemvri Sofia | Bulgaria First League | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Septemvri Sofia vs CSKA 1948 odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 16.6%, draw 24.2%, away 59.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 5.58 | 3.82 | 1.58 |
| 888Sport | 5.00 | 3.60 | 1.57 |
| Bet365 | 6.00 | 3.80 | 1.57 |
| BetVictor | 6.00 | 4.00 | 1.55 |
| Betano | 5.50 | 3.70 | 1.60 |
| Betfair | 5.00 | 3.90 | 1.50 |
| Dafabet | 5.60 | 3.95 | 1.56 |
| Marathonbet | 5.65 | 3.82 | 1.56 |
| Pinnacle | 5.72 | 4.05 | 1.58 |
| SBO | 5.13 | 3.56 | 1.49 |
| Superbet | 5.35 | 3.90 | 1.56 |
| Unibet | 6.10 | 4.20 | 1.46 |
| William Hill | 5.00 | 3.60 | 1.57 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
3 snapshots recorded, from .