Levski Sofia
vs
Ludogorets
Garuda Lions Prediction: Levski Sofia
1 – 0 Predicted score · 13% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Levski Sofia is the favourite, not a value bet.
Levski Sofia vs Ludogorets overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Levski Sofia vs Ludogorets
| Probability | Levski Sofia | Draw | Ludogorets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43.3% | 31.5% | 25.2% |
| Market | 43.8% | 28.5% | 27.7% |
| Final | 43.7% | 29.3% | 27.1% |
| Edge | -0.1% | +0.7% | -0.6% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.15, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.1% per unit staked (our 43.7% × 2.15 − 1).
Levski Sofia vs Ludogorets match preview
Levski Sofia faces Ludogorets in the Bulgaria First League with a predicted probability of 44% for a home win, while a draw stands at 29% and an away win for Ludogorets at 27%. The most likely scoreline according to our model is 1-0, with a 13% probability. Expected goals are slightly in favor of Levski Sofia at 1.18 compared to Ludogorets' 1.08.
In terms of recent form, Levski Sofia has recorded three wins, two draws, and one loss in their last six matches, while Ludogorets has achieved four wins and two draws in the same timeframe. The head-to-head record shows Levski Sofia has not won in their last four encounters, with two draws and two wins for Ludogorets. Both teams have a 44% chance of scoring in this matchup.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Levski Sofia and Ludogorets expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.30
Levski Sofia and Ludogorets attack and defence ratings
Levski Sofia
Ludogorets
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Levski Sofia vs Ludogorets markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Levski Sofia | 43.7% | 2.29 | -0.1% | 2.15 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 63.5% | 1.58 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 56.3% | 1.78 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 72.9% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 60.1% | 1.66 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Levski Sofia | 43.7% |
| Draw | 29.3% | |
| Ludogorets | 27.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 36.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 63.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43.7% |
| No | 56.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 72.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 56.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Levski Sofia win | 18.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.6% | |
| Loss | 60.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.4% |
| 1-0 | 13.3% | |
| 0-0 | 12.9% |
Levski Sofia vs Ludogorets stats
Levski Sofia and Ludogorets recent form
| Levski Sofia |
DWDWLD |
| Ludogorets |
LWWWDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Levski Sofia and Ludogorets season so far
Levski Sofia record
- They have won 9 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game at home against 1.7 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 8 matches.
Ludogorets record
- They have won 8 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.6 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Levski Sofia vs Ludogorets head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-13 | Ludogorets | Levski Sofia | Bulgaria First League | 1-1 |
| 2026-05-09 | Levski Sofia | Ludogorets | Bulgaria First League | 0-1 |
| 2026-03-05 | Ludogorets | Levski Sofia | Bulgaria First League | 1-0 |
| 2025-09-19 | Levski Sofia | Ludogorets | Bulgaria First League | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Levski Sofia vs Ludogorets odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 43.5%, draw 28.5%, away 28.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.14 | 3.24 | 3.30 |
| Bet365 | 2.15 | 3.30 | 3.40 |
| Betano | 2.15 | 3.20 | 3.30 |
| Betfair | 2.05 | 3.25 | 3.25 |
| Marathonbet | 2.12 | 3.24 | 3.28 |
| Pinnacle | 2.11 | 3.32 | 3.43 |
| William Hill | 2.10 | 3.00 | 3.25 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
13 snapshots recorded, from .