Botev Plovdiv
vs
Slavia Sofia
Garuda Lions Prediction: Botev Plovdiv
1 – 0 Predicted score · 12% model probability
Botev Plovdiv vs Slavia Sofia overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Botev Plovdiv vs Slavia Sofia
| Probability | Botev Plovdiv | Draw | Slavia Sofia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47.4% | 28.8% | 23.8% |
| Market | 55.2% | 25.7% | 19.1% |
| Final | 53.3% | 26.5% | 20.2% |
| Edge | -7.8% | +3.1% | +4.7% |
Why Botev Plovdiv
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.47 vs 0.97.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.70, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Botev Plovdiv vs Slavia Sofia match preview
Botev Plovdiv hosts Slavia Sofia in a Bulgaria First League clash on October 10, 2026. Botev Plovdiv has a 50% probability of winning, while Slavia Sofia stands at 23%, with a draw at 27%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Botev Plovdiv, occurring at a 12% probability. The expected goals indicate Botev Plovdiv at 1.47 and Slavia Sofia at 0.97, suggesting a tighter contest.
In terms of recent form, Botev Plovdiv has recorded three wins followed by three losses, while Slavia Sofia has one win, two draws, and three losses in their last six matches. The head-to-head record shows Botev Plovdiv with one win and one draw against Slavia Sofia, who has yet to secure a victory in their last two encounters.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Botev Plovdiv and Slavia Sofia expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.44
Botev Plovdiv and Slavia Sofia attack and defence ratings
Botev Plovdiv
Slavia Sofia
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Botev Plovdiv vs Slavia Sofia markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Botev Plovdiv | 53.3% | 1.88 | -7.8% | 1.70 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 55.9% | 1.79 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 50.9% | 1.96 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.8% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 52.6% | 1.90 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Botev Plovdiv | 53.3% |
| Draw | 26.5% | |
| Slavia Sofia | 20.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 55.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49.1% |
| No | 50.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 46.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Botev Plovdiv win | 24.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.1% | |
| Loss | 52.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.7% |
| 1-0 | 11.5% | |
| 0-0 | 10.0% |
Botev Plovdiv vs Slavia Sofia stats
Botev Plovdiv and Slavia Sofia recent form
| Botev Plovdiv |
WWWLLL |
| Slavia Sofia |
LDWLDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Botev Plovdiv and Slavia Sofia season so far
Botev Plovdiv record
- They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Slavia Sofia record
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game on the road against 0.7 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
Botev Plovdiv vs Slavia Sofia head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-20 | Slavia Sofia | Botev Plovdiv | Bulgaria First League | 0-1 |
| 2025-10-18 | Botev Plovdiv | Slavia Sofia | Bulgaria First League | 1-1 |
| 2025-03-03 | Slavia Sofia | Botev Plovdiv | First League | 3-2 |
| 2024-10-19 | Botev Plovdiv | Slavia Sofia | First League | 1-0 |
| 2024-05-20 | Slavia Sofia | Botev Plovdiv | First League | 3-1 |
| 2024-04-27 | Botev Plovdiv | Slavia Sofia | First League | 0-1 |
| 2024-03-02 | Slavia Sofia | Botev Plovdiv | First League | 2-2 |
| 2023-09-01 | Botev Plovdiv | Slavia Sofia | First League | 3-1 |
| 2023-05-29 | Botev Plovdiv | Slavia Sofia | First League | 0-0 |
| 2023-05-13 | Slavia Sofia | Botev Plovdiv | First League | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Botev Plovdiv vs Slavia Sofia odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 55.2%, draw 25.7%, away 19.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.69 | 3.56 | 4.84 |
| Bet365 | 1.70 | 3.60 | 5.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.65 | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| Betano | 1.65 | 3.55 | 5.30 |
| Betfair | 1.67 | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| Dafabet | 1.70 | 3.65 | 4.80 |
| Marathonbet | 1.67 | 3.56 | 4.85 |
| Pinnacle | 1.67 | 3.59 | 5.11 |
| William Hill | 1.67 | 3.30 | 4.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .