Lokomotiv Plovdiv
vs
Slavia Sofia
Garuda Lions Prediction: Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1 – 0 Predicted score · 13% model probability
Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Slavia Sofia overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Slavia Sofia
| Probability | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | Draw | Slavia Sofia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 25.6% | 38.7% | 35.7% |
| Market | 43.2% | 29.7% | 27.1% |
| Final | 38.8% | 31.9% | 29.2% |
| Edge | -17.6% | +9.0% | +8.7% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.15, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Slavia Sofia match preview
Lokomotiv Plovdiv faces Slavia Sofia in a Bulgaria First League matchup with Lokomotiv holding a 39% probability of victory compared to Slavia's 29%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0, occurring with a 13% probability. Expected goals suggest Lokomotiv Plovdiv will score 0.68 while Slavia Sofia is projected to net 0.85.
In terms of recent form, Lokomotiv Plovdiv has recorded two draws, followed by a loss, a win, and two more losses, while Slavia Sofia's last six matches include two losses, a draw, a win, another loss, and a draw. In their last two head-to-head encounters, Lokomotiv Plovdiv has secured two wins against Slavia Sofia, who has yet to achieve a victory in this matchup.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv and Slavia Sofia expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.52
Lokomotiv Plovdiv and Slavia Sofia attack and defence ratings
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Slavia Sofia
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Slavia Sofia markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 38.8% | 2.58 | -17.6% | 2.15 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 80.3% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 70.6% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 70.8% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 74.4% | 1.34 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 38.8% |
| Draw | 31.9% | |
| Slavia Sofia | 29.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 19.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 80.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 29.4% |
| No | 70.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 70.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 68.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 61.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv win | 7.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.1% | |
| Loss | 74.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 23.0% |
| 0-1 | 17.2% | |
| 1-1 | 13.7% |
Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Slavia Sofia stats
Lokomotiv Plovdiv and Slavia Sofia recent form
| Lokomotiv Plovdiv |
DDLWLL |
| Slavia Sofia |
LLDWLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv and Slavia Sofia season so far
Lokomotiv Plovdiv record
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.0 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 10 matches.
Slavia Sofia record
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game on the road against 0.7 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Slavia Sofia head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-08 | Slavia Sofia | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | Bulgaria First League | 0-2 |
| 2025-08-15 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | Slavia Sofia | Bulgaria First League | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Slavia Sofia odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 43.2%, draw 29.7%, away 27.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.15 | 3.12 | 3.40 |
| Bet365 | 2.10 | 3.10 | 3.50 |
| Betfair | 2.05 | 3.00 | 3.50 |
| Marathonbet | 2.13 | 3.12 | 3.38 |
| William Hill | 2.15 | 2.90 | 3.30 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
11 snapshots recorded, from .