Dunav Ruse
vs
Levski Sofia
Garuda Lions Prediction: Levski Sofia
0 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.51 vs 1.09.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Levski Sofia is the favourite, not a value bet.
Dunav Ruse vs Levski Sofia overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Dunav Ruse vs Levski Sofia
| Probability | Dunav Ruse | Draw | Levski Sofia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 26.0% | 28.2% | 45.8% |
| Market | 8.3% | 17.1% | 74.5% |
| Final | 12.8% | 19.9% | 67.3% |
| Edge | +4.4% | +2.8% | -7.2% |
Why Levski Sofia
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.51 vs 1.09.
Best available price on the pick: 1.26, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -15.1% per unit staked (our 67.3% × 1.26 − 1).
Dunav Ruse vs Levski Sofia match preview
Dunav Ruse faces Levski Sofia in a Bulgaria First League clash, with the probabilities indicating a strong advantage for the visitors. Levski Sofia has a 66% chance of winning, while Dunav Ruse sits at 13% and the draw at 21%. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 0-1, with an expected goals tally of 1.02 for Dunav Ruse and 1.60 for Levski Sofia.
In terms of recent form, Dunav Ruse has recorded two wins, one draw, and three losses in their last six matches. Conversely, Levski Sofia has performed better, achieving three wins, two draws, and one loss in the same period. The model suggests a 49% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance for both teams to score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Dunav Ruse and Levski Sofia expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.60
Dunav Ruse and Levski Sofia attack and defence ratings
Dunav Ruse
Levski Sofia
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
Before and after this match
Dunav Ruse vs Levski Sofia markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Levski Sofia | 67.3% | 1.48 | -7.2% | 1.26 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 52.0% | 1.92 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.8% | 1.89 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 87.2% | 1.15 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 54.2% | 1.84 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Dunav Ruse | 12.8% |
| Draw | 19.9% | |
| Levski Sofia | 67.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 52.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.8% |
| No | 47.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 32.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 80.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 87.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Levski Sofia win | 23.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.2% | |
| Loss | 54.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.5% |
| 0-1 | 10.0% | |
| 1-2 | 9.2% |
Dunav Ruse vs Levski Sofia stats
Dunav Ruse and Levski Sofia recent form
| Dunav Ruse |
WWDLLD |
| Levski Sofia |
DWDWLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Dunav Ruse and Levski Sofia season so far
Dunav Ruse record
- They have won 3 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 12 matches.
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Levski Sofia record
- They have won 9 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game at home against 1.7 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 8 matches.
Dunav Ruse vs Levski Sofia head-to-head
Last 8 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-17 | Levski Sofia | Dunav Ruse | Bulgaria First League | 2-1 |
| 2024-12-14 | Levski Sofia | Dunav Ruse | Cup | 1-0 |
| 2023-11-22 | Dunav Ruse | Levski Sofia | Cup | 1-3 |
| 2019-10-31 | Levski Sofia | Dunav Ruse | First League | 2-0 |
| 2019-07-15 | Dunav Ruse | Levski Sofia | First League | 1-4 |
| 2018-12-01 | Levski Sofia | Dunav Ruse | First League | 3-0 |
| 2018-08-11 | Dunav Ruse | Levski Sofia | First League | 1-2 |
| 2017-12-15 | Dunav Ruse | Levski Sofia | Cup | 0-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Dunav Ruse vs Levski Sofia odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 8.3%, draw 17.1%, away 74.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 12.50 | 5.35 | 1.23 |
| Bet365 | 13.00 | 5.50 | 1.25 |
| BetVictor | 12.00 | 5.25 | 1.22 |
| Betano | 11.00 | 5.10 | 1.26 |
| Betfair | 10.00 | 5.50 | 1.20 |
| Dafabet | 11.00 | 5.80 | 1.25 |
| Marathonbet | 12.50 | 5.35 | 1.22 |
| Pinnacle | 9.47 | 5.41 | 1.26 |
| William Hill | 11.00 | 5.00 | 1.22 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .