CSKA 1948
vs
Spartak Varna
Garuda Lions Prediction: CSKA 1948
2 – 0 Predicted score · 13% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.97 vs 0.72.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — CSKA 1948 is the favourite, not a value bet.
CSKA 1948 vs Spartak Varna overview
Garuda Lions analysis: CSKA 1948 vs Spartak Varna
| Probability | CSKA 1948 | Draw | Spartak Varna |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 65.9% | 22.3% | 11.8% |
| Market | 66.2% | 20.8% | 13.0% |
| Final | 66.1% | 21.2% | 12.7% |
| Edge | -0.1% | +0.4% | -0.3% |
Why CSKA 1948
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.97 vs 0.72.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.42, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.1% per unit staked (our 66.1% × 1.42 − 1).
CSKA 1948 vs Spartak Varna match preview
CSKA 1948 enters this match with a strong probability of winning at 66%, while Spartak Varna has a lower chance of 13%. The expected goals for CSKA 1948 stand at 1.97, compared to just 0.72 for Spartak Varna, indicating a significant disparity in offensive capabilities. Recent form shows CSKA 1948 with three wins in their last six matches, while Spartak Varna has struggled, managing only one win in their last six games.
Historically, CSKA 1948 has dominated their encounters with Spartak Varna, achieving five wins and five draws in their last ten meetings, with Spartak Varna yet to secure a victory. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-0, occurring at a rate of 13%. Additionally, there is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored in the match, and both teams are projected to score with a probability of 45%.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
CSKA 1948 and Spartak Varna expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.69
CSKA 1948 and Spartak Varna attack and defence ratings
CSKA 1948
Spartak Varna
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
Before and after this match
CSKA 1948 vs Spartak Varna markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | CSKA 1948 | 66.1% | 1.51 | -0.1% | 1.42 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.4% | 1.98 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 54.8% | 1.82 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 87.3% | 1.15 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | CSKA 1948 win | 41.5% | 2.41 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | CSKA 1948 | 66.1% |
| Draw | 21.2% | |
| Spartak Varna | 12.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 49.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45.2% |
| No | 54.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 87.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 33.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | CSKA 1948 win | 41.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.4% | |
| Loss | 34.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 13.2% |
| 1-0 | 12.4% | |
| 1-1 | 10.6% |
CSKA 1948 vs Spartak Varna stats
CSKA 1948 and Spartak Varna recent form
| CSKA 1948 |
WLWWLW |
| Spartak Varna |
LWLDDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
CSKA 1948 and Spartak Varna season so far
CSKA 1948 record
- They have won 8 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.6 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Spartak Varna record
- They have won 3 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 12 matches.
CSKA 1948 vs Spartak Varna head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-17 | Spartak Varna | CSKA 1948 | Bulgaria First League | 2-2 |
| 2026-03-14 | Spartak Varna | CSKA 1948 | Bulgaria First League | 1-2 |
| 2025-10-04 | CSKA 1948 | Spartak Varna | Bulgaria First League | 1-1 |
| 2024-11-29 | Spartak Varna | CSKA 1948 | First League | 1-1 |
| 2024-07-28 | CSKA 1948 | Spartak Varna | First League | 2-2 |
| 2023-05-03 | Spartak Varna | CSKA 1948 | First League | 3-3 |
| 2022-10-16 | CSKA 1948 | Spartak Varna | First League | 2-0 |
| 2022-06-14 | CSKA 1948 | Spartak Varna | Friendlies Clubs | 5-0 |
| 2020-02-22 | Spartak Varna | CSKA 1948 | Second League | 0-1 |
| 2019-08-03 | CSKA 1948 | Spartak Varna | Second League | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
CSKA 1948 vs Spartak Varna odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 66.2%, draw 20.8%, away 13.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.40 | 4.45 | 7.17 |
| Bet365 | 1.40 | 4.33 | 8.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.40 | 4.75 | 7.50 |
| Betano | 1.42 | 4.30 | 7.00 |
| Betfair | 1.36 | 4.50 | 6.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.41 | 4.60 | 7.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.39 | 4.45 | 7.10 |
| Pinnacle | 1.41 | 4.71 | 7.56 |
| SBO | 1.34 | 3.98 | 5.99 |
| William Hill | 1.40 | 4.20 | 6.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
13 snapshots recorded, from .