Spartak Varna
vs
Arda Kardzhali
Garuda Lions Prediction: Spartak Varna
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Spartak Varna vs Arda Kardzhali overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Spartak Varna vs Arda Kardzhali
| Probability | Spartak Varna | Draw | Arda Kardzhali |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 38.5% | 28.5% | 33.0% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 38.5% | 28.5% | 33.0% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Spartak Varna vs Arda Kardzhali match preview
Spartak Varna faces Arda Kardzhali in a Bulgaria First League matchup with kickoff scheduled for October 31, 2026. According to our model, Spartak Varna has a 39% chance of winning, while Arda Kardzhali's chances stand at 33%, with a 28% probability for a draw. The expected goals are 1.39 for Spartak Varna and 1.27 for Arda Kardzhali, suggesting a competitive encounter. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1 in favor of Spartak Varna, occurring with a 9% probability.
Recent form shows Spartak Varna with a record of L-W-L-D-D-D, while Arda Kardzhali has L-D-L-L-W-W. In their last two head-to-head matches, each team has secured one victory. The model indicates a 50% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance for both teams to score, highlighting the potential for an engaging match.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Spartak Varna and Arda Kardzhali expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.66
Spartak Varna and Arda Kardzhali attack and defence ratings
Spartak Varna
Arda Kardzhali
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
Spartak Varna vs Arda Kardzhali markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Spartak Varna | 38.5% | 2.60 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 50.3% | 1.99 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.3% | 1.81 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.5% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 61.5% | 1.63 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Spartak Varna | 38.5% |
| Draw | 28.5% | |
| Arda Kardzhali | 33.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 50.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.3% |
| No | 44.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 67.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 61.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Spartak Varna win | 18.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.0% | |
| Loss | 61.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.6% |
| 2-1 | 8.6% | |
| 1-0 | 8.5% |
Spartak Varna vs Arda Kardzhali stats
Spartak Varna and Arda Kardzhali recent form
| Spartak Varna |
LWLDDD |
| Arda Kardzhali |
LDLLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Spartak Varna and Arda Kardzhali season so far
Spartak Varna record
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.
Arda Kardzhali record
- They have won 5 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Spartak Varna vs Arda Kardzhali head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-27 | Arda Kardzhali | Spartak Varna | Bulgaria First League | 1-0 |
| 2025-09-13 | Spartak Varna | Arda Kardzhali | Bulgaria First League | 3-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.