Botev Vratsa
vs
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Garuda Lions Prediction: Botev Vratsa
1 – 0 Predicted score · 15% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.22 vs 0.77.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Botev Vratsa vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Botev Vratsa vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv
| Probability | Botev Vratsa | Draw | Lokomotiv Plovdiv |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 45.5% | 32.5% | 22.0% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 45.5% | 32.5% | 22.0% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Botev Vratsa
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.22 vs 0.77.
Botev Vratsa vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv match preview
Botev Vratsa faces Lokomotiv Plovdiv in a Bulgaria First League match with Botev Vratsa holding a 46% probability of winning, while Lokomotiv Plovdiv has a 22% chance. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0 in favor of Botev Vratsa, with a 15% likelihood. Expected goals for Botev Vratsa stand at 1.22, compared to 0.77 for Lokomotiv Plovdiv.
In terms of recent form, Botev Vratsa has recorded a sequence of D-L-D-D-W-L, while Lokomotiv Plovdiv's recent matches show D-D-L-W-L-L. Historically, in their last two encounters, Lokomotiv Plovdiv has secured two wins over Botev Vratsa. The probability of over 2.5 goals is at 32%, and both teams scoring is estimated at 39%.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Botev Vratsa and Lokomotiv Plovdiv expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.98
Botev Vratsa and Lokomotiv Plovdiv attack and defence ratings
Botev Vratsa
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
Botev Vratsa vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Botev Vratsa | 45.5% | 2.20 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 68.1% | 1.47 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 61.0% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.0% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 54.5% | 1.84 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Botev Vratsa | 45.5% |
| Draw | 32.5% | |
| Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 22.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 31.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 68.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 39.0% |
| No | 61.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 67.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 54.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Botev Vratsa win | 20.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.6% | |
| Loss | 54.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 15.5% |
| 0-0 | 15.0% | |
| 1-1 | 14.1% |
Botev Vratsa vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv stats
Botev Vratsa and Lokomotiv Plovdiv recent form
| Botev Vratsa |
DLDDWL |
| Lokomotiv Plovdiv |
DDLWLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Botev Vratsa and Lokomotiv Plovdiv season so far
Botev Vratsa record
- They have won 2 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game on the road against 0.4 at home.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 11 matches.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv record
- They have won 2 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 11 matches.
Botev Vratsa vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-22 | Botev Vratsa | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | Bulgaria First League | 1-2 |
| 2025-10-17 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | Botev Vratsa | Bulgaria First League | 3-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.