Septemvri Sofia
vs
Lokomotiv Sofia
Garuda Lions Prediction: Septemvri Sofia
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Septemvri Sofia vs Lokomotiv Sofia overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Septemvri Sofia vs Lokomotiv Sofia
| Probability | Septemvri Sofia | Draw | Lokomotiv Sofia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37.4% | 27.6% | 35.0% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 37.4% | 27.6% | 35.0% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Septemvri Sofia vs Lokomotiv Sofia match preview
Septemvri Sofia faces Lokomotiv Sofia in a closely matched encounter, with our model assigning a 37% probability of a home victory for Septemvri, a 35% chance for Lokomotiv, and a 28% likelihood of a draw. The expected goals are nearly identical, with Septemvri projected at 1.43 and Lokomotiv at 1.38. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favor of Septemvri, occurring with a 9% probability.
In terms of recent form, Septemvri Sofia has struggled, recording four losses followed by a draw and a win, while Lokomotiv Sofia's recent results include two draws, a win, a loss, and another draw, followed by a loss. The data indicates a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% probability that both teams will score, suggesting an engaging match ahead.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Septemvri Sofia and Lokomotiv Sofia expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.81
Septemvri Sofia and Lokomotiv Sofia attack and defence ratings
Septemvri Sofia
Lokomotiv Sofia
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
Septemvri Sofia vs Lokomotiv Sofia markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Septemvri Sofia | 37.4% | 2.67 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.2% | 1.88 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.0% | 1.72 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.4% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 62.6% | 1.60 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Septemvri Sofia | 37.4% |
| Draw | 27.6% | |
| Lokomotiv Sofia | 35.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 46.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.0% |
| No | 42.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 65.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 62.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Septemvri Sofia win | 18.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.2% | |
| Loss | 62.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.1% |
| 2-1 | 8.5% | |
| 1-2 | 8.2% |
Septemvri Sofia vs Lokomotiv Sofia stats
Septemvri Sofia and Lokomotiv Sofia recent form
| Septemvri Sofia |
LLLLDW |
| Lokomotiv Sofia |
DDWLDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Septemvri Sofia and Lokomotiv Sofia season so far
Septemvri Sofia record
- They have won 2 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
Lokomotiv Sofia record
- They have won 1 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
Septemvri Sofia vs Lokomotiv Sofia head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-27 | Lokomotiv Sofia | Septemvri Sofia | Bulgaria First League | 1-1 |
| 2026-03-17 | Lokomotiv Sofia | Septemvri Sofia | Bulgaria First League | 3-0 |
| 2025-08-29 | Septemvri Sofia | Lokomotiv Sofia | Bulgaria First League | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.