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Denmark Superliga · Full time ·Matchday 11

Lyngby vs FC Nordsjaelland

3 – 3 Full time

7′Munashe GaranangaDavid Helgi Aronsson
17′Simon Colyn
32′Gustav Leone Fraulo
38′Tobias Salquist
45′Villum Berthelsen
45′Villum BerthelsenHjalte Rasmussen
45′Mark BrinkMalte Heyde
45′Tobias SalquistJustin Janssen
48′Prince Amoako Junior
61′Frederik Gytkjær
62′Prince Amoako JuniorIbrahim Adel
63′Renzo TytensDaniel Kristjansson
63′Oskar BuurCornelius Allen
71′Justin Janssen
74′Runar Robinsonn Norheim
77′Malte Heyde
80′Noah Markmann
80′Isak Thorvaldsson
81′Jens ThomasenMathias Hebo Rasmussen
81′Frederik GytkjærMarkus Adeniyi Anderson Adedeji
81′Gustav Leone Fraulo
90′Juho Lähteenmäki
90′Alexander Lind
90′Diego Kochen

Lyngby Stadion, LingbiReferee: Aydin Uslu

Lyngby 23%
Draw 24%
FC Nordsjaelland 53%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

16 Shots 17
10 Shots on target 8
38 Possession % 62
1 Corners 7
18 Fouls 16
0 Offsides 3
4 Saves 7
239 Accurate passes 471

Lyngby vs FC Nordsjaelland overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Lyngby vs FC Nordsjaelland

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityLyngbyDrawFC Nordsjaelland
Model20.3%25.3%54.4%
Market24.4%23.6%52.0%
Final23.4%24.0%52.6%
Edge-4.1%+1.7%+2.4%

Confidence: Low

Why FC Nordsjaelland

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.80 vs 1.03.
  • The market prices FC Nordsjaelland below the model: +2.4 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Lyngby ↓ / FC Nordsjaella → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 7% 10% 10% 1 12% 10% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 93%
2+ goals 78%
3+ goals 54%
No goals 7%

Lyngby and FC Nordsjaelland expected goals

Lyngby 1.03
FC Nordsjaelland 1.80

Total expected goals: 2.82

Lyngby and FC Nordsjaelland attack and defence ratings

Lyngby

Attack 0.86 -14%
Defence 1.18 +18%

FC Nordsjaelland

Attack 1.06 +6%
Defence 0.73 -27%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Lyngby vs FC Nordsjaelland: result vs prediction

Lyngby 3 – 3 FC Nordsjaelland

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 11 fixtures

Denmark Superliga

Before and after this match

Lyngby vs FC Nordsjaelland markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 FC Nordsjaelland 52.6% 1.90 +2.4% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 53.6% 1.86 — —
Both teams to score Yes 54.6% 1.83 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 76.6% 1.31 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 45.6% 2.19 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Lyngby23.4%
Draw24.0%
FC Nordsjaelland52.6%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.553.6%
Under 2.546.4%
Both teams to scoreYes54.6%
No45.4%
Double chance1X (home or draw)47.4%
12 (either side)76.0%
X2 (draw or away)76.6%
Handicap -1FC Nordsjaelland win31.4%
Push (exactly one goal)23.0%
Loss45.6%
Correct score (top 3)1-112.0%
1-29.8%
0-29.6%

Lyngby vs FC Nordsjaelland stats

Lyngby and FC Nordsjaelland recent form

newest first
Lyngby LLDWWD
FC Nordsjaelland DDLWWD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Lyngby and FC Nordsjaelland going into this match

league record before kick-off

Lyngby record

  • They have won 1 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
  • 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

FC Nordsjaelland record

  • They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 10 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.

Lyngby vs FC Nordsjaelland head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

1Lyngby wins 5Draws 4FC Nordsjaelland wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2025-03-16LyngbyFC NordsjaellandSuperliga1-0
2024-08-11FC NordsjaellandLyngbySuperliga1-1
2024-02-18FC NordsjaellandLyngbySuperliga3-2
2023-09-03LyngbyFC NordsjaellandSuperliga1-1
2023-02-19LyngbyFC NordsjaellandSuperliga1-1
2022-08-01FC NordsjaellandLyngbySuperliga2-1
2021-03-12LyngbyFC NordsjaellandSuperliga0-3
2020-09-28FC NordsjaellandLyngbySuperliga4-1
2019-11-29LyngbyFC NordsjaellandSuperliga1-1
2019-10-04FC NordsjaellandLyngbySuperliga1-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Lyngby vs FC Nordsjaelland odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 24.9%, draw 23.6%, away 51.6%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 3.86 3.96 1.79
Bet365 4.50 4.00 1.70
BetVictor 3.70 3.80 1.80
Betano 3.75 4.05 1.87
Betfair 3.75 4.00 1.80
Dafabet 3.75 3.90 1.90
Marathonbet 3.88 3.96 1.77
Pinnacle 3.78 4.17 1.88
SBO 3.25 3.42 1.82
William Hill 3.50 3.80 1.85

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 3.82 ▲ +0.38
X 3.96 ▲ +0.16
2 1.79 ▼ -0.15

13 snapshots recorded, from .