Viborg
vs
FC Midtjylland
Garuda Lions Prediction: FC Midtjylland
1 – 2 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Viborg vs FC Midtjylland overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Viborg vs FC Midtjylland
| Probability | Viborg | Draw | FC Midtjylland |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 26.2% | 26.4% | 47.4% |
| Market | 33.9% | 25.4% | 40.7% |
| Final | 32.0% | 25.6% | 42.4% |
| Edge | -7.8% | +1.0% | +6.7% |
Why FC Midtjylland
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.68 vs 1.20.
- The market prices FC Midtjylland below the model: +6.7 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.36, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Viborg vs FC Midtjylland match preview
Viborg hosts FC Midtjylland in the Denmark Superliga with kickoff set for October 19, 2026. According to our model, Viborg has a 30% chance of winning, while FC Midtjylland stands at 45%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-2, occurring at a rate of 10%. Expected goals are calculated at 1.20 for Viborg and 1.76 for FC Midtjylland, indicating a potentially competitive match.
Recent form shows Viborg with two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last six matches, while FC Midtjylland has been more consistent, recording four wins and two draws in the same period. In their last four encounters, Viborg has not secured a win, with three draws and one victory for FC Midtjylland. The model suggests a 57% chance for over 2.5 goals and a 59% probability for both teams to score.
Viborg and FC Midtjylland team news
Viborg news
- M. Riahi — knee injury
- R. Mitchell — injury
- T. Freriks — knock
- Y. Njoh — injury
FC Midtjylland news
- E. Olafsson — illness
- Junior Brumado — knee injury
- M. Erlic — foot injury
- M. Gogorza — hip injury
- M. Jensen — foot injury
- V. Bak — inactive
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Viborg and FC Midtjylland expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.87
Viborg and FC Midtjylland attack and defence ratings
Viborg
FC Midtjylland
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Viborg vs FC Midtjylland markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Midtjylland | 42.4% | 2.36 | +6.7% | 2.36 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.7% | 1.83 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.8% | 1.73 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.4% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 52.6% | 1.90 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Viborg | 32.0% |
| Draw | 25.6% | |
| FC Midtjylland | 42.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 45.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.8% |
| No | 42.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 57.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 68.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Midtjylland win | 25.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.6% | |
| Loss | 52.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.5% |
| 1-2 | 9.5% | |
| 0-1 | 8.4% |
Viborg vs FC Midtjylland stats
Viborg and FC Midtjylland recent form
| Viborg |
WWLDLW |
| FC Midtjylland |
DWDWWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Viborg and FC Midtjylland season so far
Viborg record
- They have won 6 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
FC Midtjylland record
- They have won 6 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.6 on the road.
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Viborg vs FC Midtjylland head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-04 | FC Midtjylland | Viborg | Denmark Superliga | 3-3 |
| 2026-03-22 | Viborg | FC Midtjylland | Denmark Superliga | 1-1 |
| 2025-12-07 | Viborg | FC Midtjylland | Denmark Superliga | 3-3 |
| 2025-09-20 | FC Midtjylland | Viborg | Denmark Superliga | 2-0 |
| 2024-11-10 | Viborg | FC Midtjylland | Superliga | 1-0 |
| 2024-09-29 | FC Midtjylland | Viborg | Superliga | 3-1 |
| 2023-12-04 | FC Midtjylland | Viborg | Superliga | 5-1 |
| 2023-09-15 | Viborg | FC Midtjylland | Superliga | 2-2 |
| 2023-06-09 | Viborg | FC Midtjylland | Superliga | 0-1 |
| 2023-02-20 | Viborg | FC Midtjylland | Superliga | 0-4 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Viborg vs FC Midtjylland odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 34.2%, draw 25.2%, away 40.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.74 | 3.72 | 2.29 |
| Bet365 | 2.90 | 3.60 | 2.25 |
| BetVictor | 2.70 | 3.60 | 2.25 |
| Betano | 2.87 | 3.75 | 2.30 |
| Betfair | 2.63 | 3.80 | 2.30 |
| Dafabet | 2.80 | 3.70 | 2.36 |
| Marathonbet | 2.73 | 3.72 | 2.27 |
| Pinnacle | 2.74 | 3.90 | 2.34 |
| SBO | 2.47 | 3.16 | 2.32 |
| William Hill | 2.62 | 3.60 | 2.30 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
14 snapshots recorded, from .