Denmark Superliga
·
·Matchday 11
AC Horsens
vs
Randers FC
Garuda Lions Prediction: AC Horsens
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
AC Horsens
53%
Draw
22%
Randers FC
25%
Chance AC Horsens wins
53%
most likely outcome
Chance of a goal
97%
at least one goal in the match
Both teams score
70%
goals at both ends
Most likely score with our pick
2 – 1
9% of simulated outcomes
AC Horsens vs Randers FC overview
Garuda Lions analysis: AC Horsens vs Randers FC
| Probability | AC Horsens | Draw | Randers FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52.8% | 22.0% | 25.2% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 52.8% | 22.0% | 25.2% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why AC Horsens
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.21 vs 1.51.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
97%
2+ goals
89%
3+ goals
72%
No goals
3%
AC Horsens and Randers FC expected goals
AC Horsens
2.21
Randers FC
1.51
Total expected goals: 3.72
AC Horsens and Randers FC attack and defence ratings
AC Horsens
Attack
1.30 +30%
Defence
0.98 -2%
Randers FC
Attack
1.06 +6%
Defence
1.05 +5%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Before and after this match
AC Horsens vs Randers FC markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AC Horsens | 52.8% | 1.89 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71.6% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70.0% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 78.0% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 47.1% | 2.12 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AC Horsens | 52.8% |
| Draw | 22.0% | |
| Randers FC | 25.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 28.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70.0% |
| No | 30.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 47.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | AC Horsens win | 32.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.1% | |
| Loss | 47.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 9.0% |
| 1-1 | 8.9% | |
| 2-2 | 6.7% |
AC Horsens vs Randers FC stats
AC Horsens and Randers FC recent form
| AC Horsens |
DWLWWL |
| Randers FC |
LWLWWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
AC Horsens and Randers FC season so far
AC Horsens record
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
Randers FC record
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.