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UEFA Europa Conference League · Full time ·League Stage - 2

FC Midtjylland vs St. Truiden

0 – 1 Full time

9′Robert-Jan Vanwesemael
22′Pedro Bravo
42′F. Soelle
46′P. BravoCho Gue-Sung
46′Hong Hyun-SeokS. Iheanacho
46′M. RajovicF. Etim
59′Ilias Sebaoui
69′D. MartinezV. Bak
72′R. MerlenK. Matsuzawa
72′F. SoelleS. Bazdar
79′J. EmefileA. Ndiaye
85′J. PupeT. Hata
85′N. MbukuA. Muja
90′R. VanwesemaelW. Janssens

MCH Arena, HerningReferee: J. Xhaja

FC Midtjylland 60%
Draw 22%
St. Truiden 18%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

19 Shots 18
4 Shots on target 7
42 Possession % 58
6 Corners 7
12 Fouls 10
2 Offsides 0
6 Saves 3
241 Accurate passes 345

FC Midtjylland vs St. Truiden overview

Garuda Lions analysis: FC Midtjylland vs St. Truiden

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityFC MidtjyllandDrawSt. Truiden
Model71.3%16.7%12.1%
Market56.0%23.6%20.3%
Final59.8%21.9%18.3%
Edge+3.8%-1.7%-2.1%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why FC Midtjylland

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.74 vs 1.12.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
  • The market prices FC Midtjylland below our published probability: +3.8 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

FC Midtjylland ↓ / St. Truiden → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 7% 2 8% 9% 3 7% 8% 4+ 10% 11% 6%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 97%
2+ goals 90%
3+ goals 74%
No goals 3%

FC Midtjylland and St. Truiden expected goals

FC Midtjylland 2.74
St. Truiden 1.12

Total expected goals: 3.86

FC Midtjylland and St. Truiden attack and defence ratings

FC Midtjylland

Attack 1.48 +48%
Defence 0.70 -30%

St. Truiden

Attack 1.34 +34%
Defence 1.12 +12%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

FC Midtjylland vs St. Truiden: result vs prediction

FC Midtjylland 0 – 1 St. Truiden

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other League Stage - 2 fixtures

UEFA Europa Conference League

Before and after this match

FC Midtjylland vs St. Truiden markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 FC Midtjylland 59.8% 1.67 +3.8% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 74.3% 1.35 — —
Both teams to score Yes 63.5% 1.58 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 81.7% 1.22 — —
Handicap -1 FC Midtjylland win 50.8% 1.97 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2FC Midtjylland59.8%
Draw21.9%
St. Truiden18.3%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.574.3%
Under 2.525.7%
Both teams to scoreYes63.5%
No36.5%
Double chance1X (home or draw)81.7%
12 (either side)78.1%
X2 (draw or away)40.2%
Handicap -1FC Midtjylland win50.8%
Push (exactly one goal)19.9%
Loss29.3%
Correct score (top 3)2-18.8%
3-18.1%
2-07.9%

FC Midtjylland vs St. Truiden stats

FC Midtjylland and St. Truiden recent form

newest first
FC Midtjylland WDWDWW
St. Truiden WWLLLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

FC Midtjylland and St. Truiden going into this match

league record before kick-off

FC Midtjylland record

  • They have won 4 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.

FC Midtjylland vs St. Truiden head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

FC Midtjylland vs St. Truiden odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 56.0%, draw 23.6%, away 20.3%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.72 4.07 4.77
Bet365 1.67 3.90 4.50
BetVictor 1.67 4.00 4.50
Betano 1.72 4.25 4.70
Betfair 1.67 3.90 4.60
Dafabet 1.73 4.10 4.60
Marathonbet 1.66 3.92 4.60
Pinnacle 1.70 4.08 4.75
SBO 1.58 3.69 4.10
William Hill 1.67 3.75 4.50

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.67 ▼ -0.08
X 3.96 ▲ +0.07
2 4.60 ▲ +0.22

12 snapshots recorded, from .