FC Midtjylland
vs
St. Truiden
Garuda Lions Prediction: FC Midtjylland
3 – 0 Predicted score · 9% model probability
FC Midtjylland vs St. Truiden overview
Garuda Lions analysis: FC Midtjylland vs St. Truiden
| Probability | FC Midtjylland | Draw | St. Truiden |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 78.7% | 13.6% | 7.7% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 78.7% | 13.6% | 7.7% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why FC Midtjylland
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.01 vs 0.91.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
FC Midtjylland vs St. Truiden match preview
FC Midtjylland enters the match against St. Truiden with a strong probability of winning at 79%, while St. Truiden holds an 8% chance of victory. The model predicts a most likely scoreline of 3-0, with an expected goals tally of 3.01 for FC Midtjylland compared to 0.91 for St. Truiden. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is estimated at 75%, and both teams are expected to score at a rate of 57%.
In terms of recent form, FC Midtjylland has recorded a series of results with their latest matches showing a draw, followed by two wins and another draw, while St. Truiden's recent performances have been less favorable, with three losses in their last six matches. The confidence grade for this forecast is C, indicating a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
FC Midtjylland and St. Truiden expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.93
FC Midtjylland and St. Truiden attack and defence ratings
FC Midtjylland
St. Truiden
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other League Stage - 2 fixtures
- FC Nordsjaelland vs CSKA Sofia — team news & stats
- Monaco v Freiburg — match page
- Ajax v Atalanta — match page
- SC Braga v Gent — match page
- Aarhus vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë
- Lincoln Red Imps FC vs Twente — team news & stats
- FC Thun vs HNK Hajduk Split — team news & stats
- Borac Banja Luka vs KuPS — team news & stats
Before and after this match
FC Midtjylland vs St. Truiden markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Midtjylland | 78.7% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75.1% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.5% | 1.74 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 92.3% | 1.08 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | FC Midtjylland win | 60.4% | 1.65 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Midtjylland | 78.7% |
| Draw | 13.6% | |
| St. Truiden | 7.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 24.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.5% |
| No | 42.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 92.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 86.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 21.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Midtjylland win | 60.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.3% | |
| Loss | 21.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 3-0 | 9.0% |
| 2-0 | 8.9% | |
| 3-1 | 8.2% |
FC Midtjylland vs St. Truiden stats
FC Midtjylland and St. Truiden recent form
| FC Midtjylland |
DWWDWD |
| St. Truiden |
LLWLWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.