Aarhus
vs
Viborg
Garuda Lions Prediction: Aarhus
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Aarhus is the favourite, not a value bet.
Aarhus vs Viborg overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Aarhus vs Viborg
| Probability | Aarhus | Draw | Viborg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 34.4% | 26.7% | 38.9% |
| Market | 38.2% | 26.0% | 35.8% |
| Final | 37.3% | 26.2% | 36.5% |
| Edge | -1.0% | +0.2% | +0.8% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.53, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.7% per unit staked (our 37.3% × 2.53 − 1).
Aarhus vs Viborg match preview
Aarhus and Viborg are set to face off in the Denmark Superliga, with both teams showing mixed recent form. Aarhus has recorded a draw, loss, win, draw, and loss in their last five matches, while Viborg has a more positive trend with three wins, a draw, and a loss in the same period. The expected goals for the match indicate Aarhus at 1.39 and Viborg at 1.63, suggesting a competitive encounter.
The probabilities for the match indicate a balanced contest, with Aarhus and Viborg both at 37% to win, and a draw at 26%. Our model predicts a likely scoreline of 2-1 in favor of Aarhus, with a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% probability that both teams will score. The head-to-head record shows Aarhus with four wins and Viborg with one win in their last five encounters.
Aarhus and Viborg team news
Aarhus news
- G. Links — knock
- K. Yakob — knee injury
- M. Anderson — injury
- M. Camara — inactive
- N. Poulsen — achilles tendon injury
- T. Kristjansson — broken hand
Viborg news
- L. Coulibaly — inactive
- M. Riahi — knee injury
- R. Mitchell — injury
- T. Freriks — knock
- Y. Njoh — injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Aarhus and Viborg expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.97
Aarhus and Viborg attack and defence ratings
Aarhus
Viborg
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Aarhus vs Viborg markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aarhus | 37.3% | 2.68 | -1.0% | 2.53 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.0% | 1.75 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.9% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.8% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 65.6% | 1.52 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aarhus | 37.3% |
| Draw | 26.2% | |
| Viborg | 36.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 43.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.9% |
| No | 39.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 63.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 62.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Aarhus win | 16.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.9% | |
| Loss | 65.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.4% |
| 1-2 | 8.7% | |
| 2-1 | 8.1% |
Aarhus vs Viborg stats
Aarhus and Viborg recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Aarhus and Viborg season so far
Aarhus record
- They have won 1 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- 60% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Viborg record
- They have won 6 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Aarhus vs Viborg head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | Viborg | Aarhus | Denmark Superliga | 2-1 |
| 2026-06-27 | Aarhus | Viborg | Friendlies Clubs | 1-1 |
| 2026-05-17 | Aarhus | Viborg | Denmark Superliga | 6-2 |
| 2026-04-06 | Viborg | Aarhus | Denmark Superliga | 1-2 |
| 2026-02-22 | Aarhus | Viborg | Denmark Superliga | 5-2 |
| 2025-09-14 | Viborg | Aarhus | Denmark Superliga | 1-2 |
| 2025-03-09 | Aarhus | Viborg | Superliga | 1-1 |
| 2024-10-06 | Viborg | Aarhus | Superliga | 1-1 |
| 2024-02-04 | Aarhus | Viborg | Friendlies Clubs | 2-1 |
| 2023-11-12 | Aarhus | Viborg | Superliga | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Aarhus vs Viborg odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 38.4%, draw 26.0%, away 35.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.41 | 3.58 | 2.62 |
| Bet365 | 2.50 | 3.60 | 2.60 |
| BetVictor | 2.38 | 3.50 | 2.55 |
| Betano | 2.50 | 3.70 | 2.65 |
| Betfair | 2.30 | 3.70 | 2.63 |
| Dafabet | 2.49 | 3.65 | 2.65 |
| Marathonbet | 2.41 | 3.58 | 2.62 |
| Pinnacle | 2.53 | 3.65 | 2.70 |
| SBO | 2.20 | 3.22 | 2.60 |
| William Hill | 2.45 | 3.30 | 2.62 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
13 snapshots recorded, from .