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UEFA Europa Conference League · Full time ·League Stage - 2

Aarhus vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë

1 – 1 Full time

3′Eric Kahl
11′Andrey Yago
12′C. McCowattT. Molgaard
13′I. Gruda
16′Altin Kryeziu
39′Kristian Arnstad
46′F. TingagerD. L. Gretarsson
46′J. SerraJ. Bogere
49′J. Bogere
54′A. YagoE. Ndreca
54′A. KryeziuFernando Medeiros
63′G. JaimeG. Smajli
63′A. AlbaneseN. Ajetovikj
66′J. AndersenF. Emmery
72′Eneo Bitri
83′S. JorgensenT. Bech
87′K. LoukiliI. Diabate
90′Ibrahim Diabaté

Cepheus Park, RandersReferee: A. Culina

Aarhus 57%
Draw 22%
Egnatia Rrogozhinë 22%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

9 Shots 13
2 Shots on target 7
34 Possession % 66
5 Corners 4
11 Fouls 14
0 Offsides 2
6 Saves 1
209 Accurate passes 498

Aarhus vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Aarhus vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityAarhusDrawEgnatia Rrogozhinë
Model31.4%25.1%43.5%
Market64.9%20.8%14.3%
Final56.5%21.9%21.6%
Edge-8.4%+1.1%+7.3%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Aarhus ↓ / Egnatia Rrogoz → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 6% 6% 1 11% 9% 2 7% 7% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 95%
2+ goals 84%
3+ goals 62%
No goals 5%

Aarhus and Egnatia Rrogozhinë expected goals

Aarhus 1.46
Egnatia Rrogozhinë 1.77

Total expected goals: 3.22

Aarhus and Egnatia Rrogozhinë attack and defence ratings

Aarhus

Attack 1.08 +8%
Defence 1.09 +9%

Egnatia Rrogozhinë

Attack 1.35 +35%
Defence 0.82 -18%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Aarhus vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë: result vs prediction

Aarhus 1 – 1 Egnatia Rrogozhinë

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other League Stage - 2 fixtures

UEFA Europa Conference League

Before and after this match

Aarhus vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Aarhus 56.5% 1.77 -8.4% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 62.5% 1.60 — —
Both teams to score Yes 64.7% 1.55 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 78.4% 1.28 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 69.2% 1.45 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Aarhus56.5%
Draw21.9%
Egnatia Rrogozhinë21.6%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.562.5%
Under 2.537.5%
Both teams to scoreYes64.7%
No35.3%
Double chance1X (home or draw)78.4%
12 (either side)78.1%
X2 (draw or away)43.5%
Handicap -1Aarhus win14.6%
Push (exactly one goal)16.2%
Loss69.2%
Correct score (top 3)1-111.3%
1-29.0%
2-17.5%

Aarhus vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë stats

Aarhus and Egnatia Rrogozhinë recent form

newest first
Aarhus DLWDWL
Egnatia Rrogozhinë WDWWLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Aarhus vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Aarhus vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 64.9%, draw 20.8%, away 14.3%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.48 4.62 6.85
Bet365 1.44 4.50 6.50
BetVictor 1.44 4.40 6.50
Betano 1.52 4.65 6.80
Betfair 1.36 4.50 7.50
Dafabet 1.49 4.70 6.40
Marathonbet 1.43 4.45 6.60
Pinnacle 1.47 4.62 6.88
SBO 1.43 3.82 5.32
William Hill 1.44 4.20 6.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.44 ▼ -0.20
X 4.50 ▲ +0.46
2 6.55 ▲ +1.51

10 snapshots recorded, from .