Aarhus
vs
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Garuda Lions Prediction: Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1 – 2 Predicted score · 8% model probability
Aarhus vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Aarhus vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë
| Probability | Aarhus | Draw | Egnatia Rrogozhinë |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32.3% | 22.6% | 45.0% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 32.3% | 22.6% | 45.0% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Egnatia Rrogozhinë
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.06 vs 1.74.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Aarhus vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë match preview
Aarhus faces Egnatia Rrogozhinë in the UEFA Europa Conference League with a kickoff scheduled for October 22, 2026. According to our model, Aarhus has a 32% probability of winning, while Egnatia Rrogozhinë stands at 45%, with a 23% chance for a draw. The expected goals for Aarhus is 1.74 compared to Egnatia Rrogozhinë's 2.06, indicating a competitive match.
Recent form shows Aarhus with a record of D-W-L-D-L-L, while Egnatia Rrogozhinë has performed better with W-L-W-W-L-W. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-2, occurring with an 8% probability. Additionally, there is a 73% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring in this matchup.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Aarhus and Egnatia Rrogozhinë expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.80
Aarhus and Egnatia Rrogozhinë attack and defence ratings
Aarhus
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other League Stage - 2 fixtures
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- Monaco v Freiburg — match page
- Ajax v Atalanta — match page
- SC Braga v Gent — match page
- FC Midtjylland vs St. Truiden
- Lincoln Red Imps FC vs Twente — team news & stats
- FC Thun vs HNK Hajduk Split — team news & stats
- Borac Banja Luka vs KuPS — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Aarhus vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 45.0% | 2.22 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73.1% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72.8% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 77.4% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 55.0% | 1.82 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aarhus | 32.3% |
| Draw | 22.6% | |
| Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 45.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 26.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72.8% |
| No | 27.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 55.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 67.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Egnatia Rrogozhinë win | 26.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.8% | |
| Loss | 55.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 8.8% |
| 1-2 | 8.3% | |
| 2-2 | 7.2% |
Aarhus vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë stats
Aarhus and Egnatia Rrogozhinë recent form
| Aarhus |
DWLDLL |
| Egnatia Rrogozhinë |
WLWWLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.