Roskilde
vs
Aarhus
1 – 2 Full time
| 14′ | A. Maarup | ||
| 43′ | D. L. Gretarsson | ||
| 46′ | G. LinksF. Emmery | ||
| 52′ | M. Veltz | ||
| 60′ | R. CarstensenJ. Andersen | ||
| 65′ | M. HammelboeA. Knaack | ||
| 65′ | F. EngqvistC. Floyd | ||
| 65′ | M. CarlsonF. Palle | ||
| 67′ | M. Solbakken | ||
| 71′ | T. Bech | ||
| 74′ | V. MontellO. Skolnik | ||
| 74′ | M. KnudsenK. Arnstad | ||
| 74′ | J. BogereC. McCowatt | ||
| 84′ | E. StaugaardN. Zachariassen | ||
| 90′ | J. AndersenT. Molgaard |
Roskilde vs Aarhus overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Roskilde vs Aarhus
| Probability | Roskilde | Draw | Aarhus |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 29.2% | 26.4% | 44.4% |
| Market | 13.7% | 19.2% | 67.1% |
| Final | 17.6% | 21.0% | 61.4% |
| Edge | +3.9% | +1.8% | -5.7% |
Why Aarhus
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.64 vs 1.30.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Roskilde and Aarhus expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.94
Roskilde and Aarhus attack and defence ratings
Roskilde
Aarhus
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Roskilde vs Aarhus: result vs prediction
Roskilde 1 – 2 Aarhus
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Round of 16 fixtures
Before and after this match
Roskilde vs Aarhus markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aarhus | 61.4% | 1.63 | -5.7% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.3% | 1.78 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.7% | 1.67 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 82.4% | 1.21 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 55.6% | 1.80 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Roskilde | 17.6% |
| Draw | 21.0% | |
| Aarhus | 61.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 43.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.7% |
| No | 40.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 38.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 82.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Aarhus win | 23.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.7% | |
| Loss | 55.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.4% |
| 1-2 | 9.3% | |
| 0-1 | 7.6% |
Roskilde vs Aarhus stats
Roskilde and Aarhus recent form
| Roskilde |
WWWLWW |
| Aarhus |
WDDLWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Roskilde vs Aarhus head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-05-07 | Roskilde | Aarhus | 1. Division | 0-2 |
| 2015-04-02 | Aarhus | Roskilde | 1. Division | 1-0 |
| 2014-07-27 | Aarhus | Roskilde | 1. Division | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Roskilde vs Aarhus odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 13.7%, draw 19.2%, away 67.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 6.77 | 4.70 | 1.39 |
| Bet365 | 6.50 | 5.50 | 1.38 |
| BetVictor | 7.00 | 4.80 | 1.33 |
| Betano | 6.70 | 4.85 | 1.40 |
| Betfair | 7.50 | 5.00 | 1.30 |
| Dafabet | 6.60 | 5.00 | 1.37 |
| Marathonbet | 6.70 | 4.70 | 1.38 |
| SBO | 6.47 | 4.45 | 1.31 |
| William Hill | 6.00 | 4.20 | 1.36 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
4 snapshots recorded, from .