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DBU Pokalen · Full time ·Round of 16

Esbjerg vs FC Nordsjaelland

0 – 1 Full time

12′A. Lind
27′A. SonderskovG. Bjerge
45′N. Rojkjaer
61′A. LindW. Faber
62′N. MarkmannS. Acquah
62′V. BerthelsenI. Adel
64′B. HvidtN. Strunck
64′N. StrandbyJ. Ampofo
75′M. Heyde
79′M. BrinkJ. Janssen
79′J. FossG. Madsen
80′O. BoesenA. Ahmad
85′M. WalkerR. Norheim

Blue Water Arena, EsbjergReferee: S. Putros

Esbjerg 15%
Draw 20%
FC Nordsjaelland 65%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Esbjerg vs FC Nordsjaelland overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Esbjerg vs FC Nordsjaelland

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityEsbjergDrawFC Nordsjaelland
Model13.4%21.9%64.6%
Market15.2%20.0%64.8%
Final14.7%20.5%64.8%
Edge-0.4%+0.5%-0.0%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why FC Nordsjaelland

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.06 vs 0.85.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Esbjerg ↓ / FC Nordsjaella → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 6% 10% 12% 8% 7% 1 10% 10% 7% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 94%
2+ goals 80%
3+ goals 56%
No goals 6%

Esbjerg and FC Nordsjaelland expected goals

Esbjerg 0.85
FC Nordsjaelland 2.06

Total expected goals: 2.91

Esbjerg and FC Nordsjaelland attack and defence ratings

Esbjerg

Attack 0.95 -5%
Defence 0.82 -18%

FC Nordsjaelland

Attack 0.87 -13%
Defence 0.76 -24%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Esbjerg vs FC Nordsjaelland: result vs prediction

Esbjerg 0 – 1 FC Nordsjaelland

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Round of 16 fixtures

DBU Pokalen

Before and after this match

Esbjerg vs FC Nordsjaelland markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 FC Nordsjaelland 64.8% 1.54 -0.0% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 55.6% 1.80 — —
Both teams to score Yes 50.7% 1.97 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 85.3% 1.17 — —
Handicap -1 FC Nordsjaelland win 41.1% 2.43 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Esbjerg14.7%
Draw20.5%
FC Nordsjaelland64.8%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.555.6%
Under 2.544.4%
Both teams to scoreYes50.7%
No49.3%
Double chance1X (home or draw)35.2%
12 (either side)79.5%
X2 (draw or away)85.3%
Handicap -1FC Nordsjaelland win41.1%
Push (exactly one goal)23.4%
Loss35.4%
Correct score (top 3)0-211.6%
1-110.5%
0-110.3%

Esbjerg vs FC Nordsjaelland stats

Esbjerg and FC Nordsjaelland recent form

newest first
Esbjerg WDDLWD
FC Nordsjaelland DDDDDL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Esbjerg vs FC Nordsjaelland head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

3Esbjerg wins 4Draws 3FC Nordsjaelland wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2020-02-29EsbjergFC NordsjaellandSuperliga1-2
2019-07-28FC NordsjaellandEsbjergSuperliga2-0
2019-05-06EsbjergFC NordsjaellandSuperliga0-0
2019-04-14FC NordsjaellandEsbjergSuperliga1-2
2018-12-16EsbjergFC NordsjaellandSuperliga3-0
2018-07-15FC NordsjaellandEsbjergSuperliga1-1
2016-11-27EsbjergFC NordsjaellandSuperliga2-2
2016-09-25FC NordsjaellandEsbjergSuperliga3-0
2016-04-11FC NordsjaellandEsbjergSuperliga0-0
2015-10-30EsbjergFC NordsjaellandSuperliga2-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Esbjerg vs FC Nordsjaelland odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 15.2%, draw 20.0%, away 64.8%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 6.63 4.55 1.41
Bet365 5.75 4.75 1.45
BetVictor 6.50 4.40 1.40
Betano 5.90 4.70 1.45
Betfair 6.00 4.60 1.36
Dafabet 6.00 4.70 1.43
Marathonbet 6.55 4.55 1.40
Pinnacle 5.99 4.49 1.45
SBO 5.42 4.10 1.36
William Hill 6.00 4.00 1.40

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 6.00 ▼ -0.50
X 4.55 ▲ +0.10
2 1.40 —

3 snapshots recorded, from .