FC Nordsjaelland
vs
FC Midtjylland
Garuda Lions Prediction: FC Nordsjaelland
2 – 1 Predicted score · 7% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — FC Nordsjaelland is the favourite, not a value bet.
FC Nordsjaelland vs FC Midtjylland overview
Garuda Lions analysis: FC Nordsjaelland vs FC Midtjylland
| Probability | FC Nordsjaelland | Draw | FC Midtjylland |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 28.2% | 26.0% | 45.8% |
| Market | 42.6% | 24.9% | 32.5% |
| Final | 39.0% | 25.2% | 35.8% |
| Edge | -3.6% | +0.3% | +3.3% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.22, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -13.4% per unit staked (our 39.0% × 2.22 − 1).
FC Nordsjaelland vs FC Midtjylland match preview
FC Nordsjaelland faces FC Midtjylland in the Denmark Superliga with a kickoff scheduled for November 1, 2026. The probabilities from our model indicate a 39% chance for a win for FC Nordsjaelland, a 25% likelihood of a draw, and a 36% chance for FC Midtjylland to secure victory. The expected goals for FC Nordsjaelland stand at 1.29, while FC Midtjylland has a higher expectation of 1.70. Recent form shows FC Nordsjaelland struggling with five consecutive draws followed by a loss, while FC Midtjylland has a mixed record with two wins, a draw, and a loss in their last six matches.
The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of FC Nordsjaelland, occurring at a rate of 7%. Additionally, there is a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals being scored in the match and a 60% chance that both teams will find the net. The head-to-head record over the last ten encounters reveals an even split, with both teams securing four wins each and two matches ending in draws.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
FC Nordsjaelland and FC Midtjylland expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.99
FC Nordsjaelland and FC Midtjylland attack and defence ratings
FC Nordsjaelland
FC Midtjylland
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
FC Nordsjaelland vs FC Midtjylland markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Nordsjaelland | 39.0% | 2.56 | -3.6% | 2.22 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.4% | 1.74 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.4% | 1.66 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.8% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 71.8% | 1.39 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Nordsjaelland | 39.0% |
| Draw | 25.2% | |
| FC Midtjylland | 35.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 42.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.4% |
| No | 39.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 64.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 61.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Nordsjaelland win | 12.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 15.7% | |
| Loss | 71.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.1% |
| 1-2 | 9.4% | |
| 0-1 | 7.4% |
FC Nordsjaelland vs FC Midtjylland stats
FC Nordsjaelland and FC Midtjylland recent form
| FC Nordsjaelland |
DDDDDL |
| FC Midtjylland |
WLWDWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
FC Nordsjaelland and FC Midtjylland season so far
FC Nordsjaelland record
- They have won 5 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
FC Midtjylland record
- They have won 7 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.7 on the road.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
FC Nordsjaelland vs FC Midtjylland head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | FC Midtjylland | FC Nordsjaelland | Denmark Superliga | 2-2 |
| 2026-05-10 | FC Nordsjaelland | FC Midtjylland | Denmark Superliga | 0-0 |
| 2026-03-15 | FC Midtjylland | FC Nordsjaelland | Denmark Superliga | 0-1 |
| 2025-12-14 | FC Nordsjaelland | FC Midtjylland | DBU Pokalen | 2-1 |
| 2025-12-04 | FC Midtjylland | FC Nordsjaelland | DBU Pokalen | 5-1 |
| 2025-11-30 | FC Midtjylland | FC Nordsjaelland | Denmark Superliga | 6-0 |
| 2025-09-14 | FC Nordsjaelland | FC Midtjylland | Denmark Superliga | 1-0 |
| 2025-04-27 | FC Midtjylland | FC Nordsjaelland | Superliga | 5-0 |
| 2025-04-22 | FC Nordsjaelland | FC Midtjylland | Superliga | 3-2 |
| 2025-03-02 | FC Midtjylland | FC Nordsjaelland | Superliga | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
FC Nordsjaelland vs FC Midtjylland odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 42.6%, draw 24.9%, away 32.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.19 | 3.75 | 2.88 |
| BetVictor | 2.15 | 3.70 | 2.80 |
| Betano | 2.22 | 3.85 | 2.92 |
| Marathonbet | 2.17 | 3.75 | 2.88 |
| Pinnacle | 2.21 | 3.86 | 2.95 |
| William Hill | 2.20 | 3.50 | 2.80 |