Brondby
vs
Aarhus
Garuda Lions Prediction: Brondby
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Brondby is the favourite, not a value bet.
Brondby vs Aarhus overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Brondby vs Aarhus
| Probability | Brondby | Draw | Aarhus |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41.7% | 24.4% | 33.9% |
| Market | 47.2% | 24.9% | 27.9% |
| Final | 45.8% | 24.8% | 29.4% |
| Edge | -1.4% | -0.1% | +1.5% |
Why Brondby
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.95, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -10.6% per unit staked (our 45.8% × 1.95 − 1).
Brondby vs Aarhus match preview
Brondby faces Aarhus in the Denmark Superliga with a kickoff scheduled for November 1, 2026. According to our model, Brondby has a 46% probability of winning, while Aarhus stands at 29%, and a draw is estimated at 25%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1 in favor of Brondby, with an expected goals tally of 1.80 for Brondby and 1.61 for Aarhus.
In terms of recent form, Brondby has recorded a mixed set of results with two wins and three losses in their last six matches, while Aarhus has shown slightly better consistency with two wins, three draws, and one loss. The head-to-head record over the last five encounters favors Aarhus, who have secured two wins and three draws against Brondby. The model indicates a high likelihood of over 2.5 goals at 66% and both teams scoring at 68%.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Brondby and Aarhus expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.41
Brondby and Aarhus attack and defence ratings
Brondby
Aarhus
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
Brondby vs Aarhus markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Brondby | 45.8% | 2.18 | -1.4% | 1.95 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.2% | 1.51 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67.7% | 1.48 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.2% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 58.3% | 1.72 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Brondby | 45.8% |
| Draw | 24.8% | |
| Aarhus | 29.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 33.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67.7% |
| No | 32.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 70.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 54.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Brondby win | 22.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.9% | |
| Loss | 58.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.5% |
| 2-1 | 8.6% | |
| 1-2 | 7.7% |
Brondby vs Aarhus stats
Brondby and Aarhus recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Brondby and Aarhus season so far
Brondby record
- They have won 5 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Aarhus record
- They have won 1 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- 60% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Brondby vs Aarhus head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | Aarhus | Brondby | Denmark Superliga | 1-1 |
| 2026-05-10 | Brondby | Aarhus | Denmark Superliga | 0-2 |
| 2026-03-22 | Aarhus | Brondby | Denmark Superliga | 0-0 |
| 2025-10-19 | Brondby | Aarhus | Denmark Superliga | 3-3 |
| 2025-09-21 | Aarhus | Brondby | Denmark Superliga | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Brondby vs Aarhus odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 47.2%, draw 24.9%, away 27.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.95 | 3.70 | 3.30 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
6 snapshots recorded, from .