Lausanne
vs
FC Thun
Garuda Lions Prediction: Lausanne
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.04 vs 1.27.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Lausanne vs FC Thun overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Lausanne vs FC Thun
| Probability | Lausanne | Draw | FC Thun |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54.1% | 23.3% | 22.7% |
| Market | 37.7% | 25.3% | 37.1% |
| Final | 41.8% | 24.8% | 33.5% |
| Edge | +4.1% | -0.5% | -3.6% |
Why Lausanne
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.04 vs 1.27.
- The market prices Lausanne below our published probability: +4.1 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.58, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +7.8% per unit staked (our 41.8% × 2.58 − 1).
Lausanne vs FC Thun match preview
Lausanne hosts FC Thun in a matchup where Lausanne holds a 57% probability of winning, compared to FC Thun's 21%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1, with a 9% likelihood. Additionally, there is a strong expectation for goals, with 69% probability of over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score. Expected goals are calculated at 2.22 for Lausanne and 1.32 for FC Thun.
In terms of recent form, Lausanne has recorded a mixed bag of results with one win and five losses, alongside a draw. Conversely, FC Thun's recent performances include one win, two draws, and four losses. Historically, in their last ten encounters, Lausanne has won four times, while FC Thun has secured three victories and there have been three draws. The confidence grade for this prediction stands at C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Lausanne and FC Thun expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.31
Lausanne and FC Thun attack and defence ratings
Lausanne
FC Thun
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Lausanne vs FC Thun markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lausanne | 41.8% | 2.39 | +4.1% | 2.58 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.2% | 1.56 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.6% | 1.57 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.2% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 45.9% | 2.18 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lausanne | 41.8% |
| Draw | 24.8% | |
| FC Thun | 33.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 35.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.6% |
| No | 36.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 66.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 58.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Lausanne win | 32.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.3% | |
| Loss | 45.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.4% |
| 2-1 | 9.6% | |
| 2-0 | 7.6% |
Lausanne vs FC Thun stats
Lausanne and FC Thun recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Lausanne and FC Thun season so far
Lausanne record
- They have won 1 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 10 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
FC Thun record
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game on the road against 0.5 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
Lausanne vs FC Thun head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | FC Thun | Lausanne | Switzerland Super League | 0-0 |
| 2026-02-12 | FC Thun | Lausanne | Switzerland Super League | 5-1 |
| 2025-11-30 | Lausanne | FC Thun | Switzerland Super League | 2-1 |
| 2025-08-03 | FC Thun | Lausanne | Switzerland Super League | 2-1 |
| 2025-03-20 | Lausanne | FC Thun | Friendlies Clubs | 2-2 |
| 2025-01-05 | Lausanne | FC Thun | Friendlies Clubs | 3-0 |
| 2023-05-19 | FC Thun | Lausanne | Challenge League | 3-3 |
| 2023-03-19 | Lausanne | FC Thun | Challenge League | 1-3 |
| 2023-01-21 | Lausanne | FC Thun | Friendlies Clubs | 4-1 |
| 2022-10-21 | Lausanne | FC Thun | Challenge League | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Lausanne vs FC Thun odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 37.7%, draw 25.3%, away 37.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.47 | 3.68 | 2.51 |
| Betfair | 2.45 | 3.80 | 2.45 |
| Marathonbet | 2.47 | 3.68 | 2.51 |
| Pinnacle | 2.58 | 3.58 | 2.61 |
| William Hill | 2.50 | 3.40 | 2.50 |