Garuda Lions
Today
Switzerland Super League Β· Β·Matchday 12

FC Lugano vs FC Basel 1893

Garuda Lions Prediction: FC Lugano

3 – 1 Predicted score Β· 8% model probability

  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.28 vs 1.19.
  • RiskGrade C: weaker evidence β€” both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Bet on FC Lugano

AIL Arena, Lugano

FC Lugano 64%
Draw 19%
FC Basel 1893 17%

Confidence: Low  Β·  blended with market odds

Chance FC Lugano wins
64%
most likely outcome
Chance of a goal
98%
at least one goal in the match
Both teams score
67%
goals at both ends
Most likely score with our pick
3 – 1
8% of simulated outcomes

FC Lugano vs FC Basel 1893 overview

Garuda Lions analysis: FC Lugano vs FC Basel 1893

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityFC LuganoDrawFC Basel 1893
Model77.1%13.3%9.6%
Market59.5%20.8%19.7%
Final63.9%18.9%17.2%
Edge+4.4%-1.9%-2.5%

Confidence: Low Β· Edge = Final minus Market

Why FC Lugano

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.28 vs 1.19.
  • Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • The market prices FC Lugano below our published probability: +4.4 percentage points of edge.

Best available price on the pick: 1.58, recorded β€” the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +1.0% per unit staked (our 63.9% Γ— 1.58 βˆ’ 1).

FC Lugano vs FC Basel 1893 match preview

FC Lugano enters this match against FC Basel 1893 with a strong recent form, boasting six consecutive wins. Their expected goals stand at 3.66, indicating a potent attacking threat, while FC Basel 1893 has an expected goals figure of just 1.29, reflecting their struggles. The probabilities suggest a commanding 80% chance for a Lugano victory, with a likelihood of 87% for over 2.5 goals in the match and 71% for both teams to score.

Historically, FC Lugano has had the upper hand in their recent encounters, winning six of the last ten meetings, compared to Basel's two wins and two draws. Basel's recent form shows inconsistency, with three losses in their last five matches. The model predicts a most likely scoreline of 3-1 in favor of Lugano, emphasizing their current dominance in the league.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

FC Lugano ↓ / FC Basel 1893 β†’ 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 2 3 8% 4+ 13% 15% 9%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 98%
2+ goals 94%
3+ goals 82%
No goals 2%

FC Lugano and FC Basel 1893 expected goals

FC Lugano 3.28
FC Basel 1893 1.19

Total expected goals: 4.46

FC Lugano and FC Basel 1893 attack and defence ratings

FC Lugano

Attack 1.78 +78%
Defence 0.75 -25%

FC Basel 1893

Attack 1.02 +2%
Defence 1.02 +2%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Other Matchday 12 fixtures

Switzerland Super League

Before and after this match

FC Lugano vs FC Basel 1893 markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 FC Lugano 63.9% 1.56 +4.4% 1.58
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 82.2% 1.22 β€” β€”
Both teams to score Yes 67.3% 1.48 β€” β€”
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 82.8% 1.21 β€” β€”
Handicap -1 FC Lugano win 59.8% 1.67 β€” β€”

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2FC Lugano63.9%
Draw18.9%
FC Basel 189317.2%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.582.2%
Under 2.517.8%
Both teams to scoreYes67.3%
No32.7%
Double chance1X (home or draw)82.8%
12 (either side)81.1%
X2 (draw or away)36.1%
Handicap -1FC Lugano win59.8%
Push (exactly one goal)17.3%
Loss22.9%
Correct score (top 3)3-18.0%
2-17.3%
3-06.8%
Compare prices for this pick

FC Lugano vs FC Basel 1893 stats

FC Lugano and FC Basel 1893 recent form

newest first
FC Lugano WWWWWW
FC Basel 1893 DWLLWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

FC Lugano and FC Basel 1893 season so far

league record

FC Lugano record

  • They have won 9 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 3.1 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.

FC Basel 1893 record

  • They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.4 at home.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
  • 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

FC Lugano vs FC Basel 1893 head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

6FC Lugano wins 2Draws 2FC Basel 1893 wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-09-06FC Basel 1893FC LuganoSwitzerland Super League1-3
2026-05-17FC LuganoFC Basel 1893Switzerland Super League4-0
2026-02-15FC Basel 1893FC LuganoSwitzerland Super League1-1
2025-11-09FC Basel 1893FC LuganoSwitzerland Super League0-1
2025-08-10FC LuganoFC Basel 1893Switzerland Super League3-1
2025-05-10FC LuganoFC Basel 1893Super League2-5
2025-04-06FC Basel 1893FC LuganoSuper League2-0
2025-01-19FC LuganoFC Basel 1893Super League2-2
2024-07-27FC Basel 1893FC LuganoSuper League1-2
2024-04-02FC LuganoFC Basel 1893Super League2-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

FC Lugano vs FC Basel 1893 odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 59.5%, draw 20.8%, away 19.7%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.57 4.50 4.73
Betfair 1.53 4.50 5.00
Pinnacle 1.58 4.68 4.77
William Hill 1.57 4.20 4.60
Find the best place to bet

Odds movement

Only one odds snapshot recorded so far β€” movement needs at least two.

Prediction snapshot 1 FC Lugano Predicted score 3 – 1 Low Bet Now
v Bet Now