FC Lugano
vs
Kauno Žalgiris
3 – 0 Full time
| 11′ | Y. Cimignani | ||
| 13′ | Anthony Kalik | ||
| 24′ | E. Alioski | ||
| 32′ | D. Dos Santos | ||
| 46′ | L. MaiD. Kelvin | ||
| 46′ | D. Dos SantosE. Pihlstrom | ||
| 46′ | A. BenchaibY. Karashima | ||
| 46′ | L. KrekovicM. Burba | ||
| 51′ | Anton Tolordava | ||
| 58′ | Damian Kelvin | ||
| 61′ | A. KalikL. I. Kastrati | ||
| 61′ | G. DebeljuhI. Fiolic | ||
| 70′ | U. BislimiA. Grgic | ||
| 70′ | A. AjetiK. Behrens | ||
| 77′ | Y. CimignaniB. D. Castro Espinosa | ||
| 81′ | J. MoutachyG. Sirgedas |
Match stats
| 14 | Shots | 5 |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Shots on target | 1 |
| 65 | Possession % | 35 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 8 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Offsides | 3 |
| 1 | Saves | 2 |
| 626 | Accurate passes | 283 |
FC Lugano vs Kauno Žalgiris overview
Garuda Lions analysis: FC Lugano vs Kauno Žalgiris
| Probability | FC Lugano | Draw | Kauno Žalgiris |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 76.4% | 14.1% | 9.5% |
| Market | 81.5% | 12.3% | 6.2% |
| Final | 80.2% | 12.7% | 7.1% |
| Edge | -1.3% | +0.5% | +0.8% |
Why FC Lugano
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.09 vs 1.10.
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
FC Lugano and Kauno Žalgiris expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.19
FC Lugano and Kauno Žalgiris attack and defence ratings
FC Lugano
Kauno Žalgiris
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
FC Lugano vs Kauno Žalgiris: result vs prediction
FC Lugano 3 – 0 Kauno Žalgiris
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other League Stage - 3 fixtures
Before and after this match
FC Lugano vs Kauno Žalgiris markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Lugano | 80.2% | 1.25 | -1.3% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 78.8% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.1% | 1.56 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 92.9% | 1.08 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | FC Lugano win | 58.2% | 1.72 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Lugano | 80.2% |
| Draw | 12.7% | |
| Kauno Žalgiris | 7.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 78.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 21.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.1% |
| No | 35.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 92.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 87.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 19.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Lugano win | 58.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.1% | |
| Loss | 23.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 3-1 | 8.2% |
| 2-1 | 8.0% | |
| 3-0 | 7.5% |
FC Lugano vs Kauno Žalgiris stats
FC Lugano and Kauno Žalgiris recent form
| FC Lugano |
WWWWWW |
| Kauno Žalgiris |
WDLWLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
FC Lugano and Kauno Žalgiris going into this match
FC Lugano record
- They have won 6 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
- They average 3.2 goals per game on the road against 2.0 at home.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
FC Lugano vs Kauno Žalgiris head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
FC Lugano vs Kauno Žalgiris odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 81.5%, draw 12.3%, away 6.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.16 | 8.40 | 16.50 |
| Bet365 | 1.14 | 7.50 | 17.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.13 | 8.00 | 15.00 |
| Betano | 1.19 | 7.80 | 18.00 |
| Betfair | 1.15 | 7.50 | 12.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.17 | 8.40 | 15.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.15 | 7.30 | 14.75 |
| Pinnacle | 1.15 | 8.94 | 16.56 |
| SBO | 1.15 | 6.86 | 11.56 |
| William Hill | 1.15 | 7.50 | 13.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
14 snapshots recorded, from .